Whole Milk Powder Market

How big is the Whole Milk Powder Market in 2026?

The Whole Milk Powder Market is projected to reach USD 12,565 million by 2036, growing at a 3.3% CAGR from 2026 to 2036. FMI estimates the market at USD 9,082 million in 2026, after it was valued at USD 8,792 million in 2025. The product is mostly a traded commodity, and the OECD and FAO report that around 50.0% of world production of whole and skimmed milk powder is traded [1]. Prices recovered in 2025 and 2026. Whole milk powder averaged USD 3,971 per tonne at a Global Dairy Trade auction in early November 2026, up 5.9% on the previous event [2]. Revenue therefore follows the milk supply of New Zealand, the European Union and the United States, and the import budgets of China, Africa and the Middle East.

USDA forecasts New Zealand's 2026 exports of whole milk powder at 1.50 million tonnes [10]. That is 80.0% of the 1.88 million tonnes shipped by the four major exporters [10]. European Union and Australian shipments are each forecast to fall 10%, so buyers have few alternatives [10]. Among tracked importers, China is forecast to buy 415 thousand tonnes and Algeria 270 thousand [10].

Key Market Trends & Insights

• New Zealand is shifting more of its milk from whole milk powder into protein products. A New Zealand cooperative announced an extra NZD 1.0 billion for South Island protein plants on 24 September 2026 [3]. The three-year programme will move more milk from whole milk powder and commodities into high-value products [3]. New Zealand supplied 53.0% of global full cream powder exports in 2025 [4]. A shift of capacity there can tighten commodity supply.
• China's role as the main buyer is easing, because the OECD and FAO project that whole milk powder imports into China will fall to 15.0% of global imports in 2035, 2.7 percentage points below the base period, as Chinese milk output grows [1]. Imports of milk powder into China have already halved over four years since the 2021 peak [4].
• Africa and the Middle East are taking more powder, as the OECD and FAO expect Africa to increase whole milk powder imports considerably over ten years, and Saudi Arabia increased dairy imports in 2025 while Algeria, Iraq and Mexico cut theirs [1].

Regional Highlights

• In Oceania, supply is large but growth is slow. The OECD and FAO project New Zealand milk output to grow 1.0% a year over the next decade [1]. Fonterra forecasts 2026/27 milk collections of just over 1.6 billion kgMS [3]. On 30 October 2026 it raised its farmgate milk price midpoint to NZD 9.75 per kgMS [17].
• In the Middle East and North Africa, imports consist mainly of milk powders and functional dairy ingredients. The Middle East dairy market was estimated at USD 19.5 billion in 2025 [5].

Whole Milk Powder Market Size and Forecast

Table 1: Whole Milk Powder Market Size and Forecast

Market size and forecast	Value
Market size in 2025	USD 8,792.0 million
Estimated market size in 2026	USD 9,082.0 million
Projected market size by 2036	USD 12,565.0 million
CAGR from 2026 to 2036	3.3%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the whole milk powder market, 2026.

Analyst Perspective

“Whole milk powder is bought on price, fat specification and delivery date, and most contracts follow the Global Dairy Trade price. Buyers in confectionery, infant formula and reconstitution plants keep several approved origins to protect supply. For sellers, the product is a storage form of milk, so revenue rises when milk supply and demand are both firm and falls when new supply arrives, while exporters that move milk into higher-value proteins reduce powder supply and import-dependent regions will absorb more powder as they grow faster than their own milk output.”

- Nandini Roy Choudhury, Principal Analyst at Future Market Insights

How is the Whole Milk Powder Market segmented?

• By end use: Confectionery, Dairy Products, Bakery, Infant Formula, Reconstituted Milk and Retail Packs.
• By distribution channel: B2B and Direct Sales, B2C Retail.
• By source: Cow Milk, Buffalo Milk, Goat, Sheep and Other Milk.
• By region: North America, Latin America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Oceania, Middle East and Africa.

Why does Confectionery lead by End Use in the Whole Milk Powder Market in 2026?

Confectionery is estimated to account for 26.0% of the Whole Milk Powder Market by end use in 2026.

The OECD and FAO name manufacturing as the main use of skimmed and whole milk powder [1]. This covers confectionery, infant formula and bakery products [1]. Chocolate makers value whole milk powder for steady milk solids and flavor, and the price premium of fat-rich powder over skim milk powder is supported by strong demand for milk fat [1]. Dairy products, bakery, infant formula and reconstituted retail milk hold the remaining 74.0%. In regions with limited milk production, milk powders are the main route for supply [1].

Table 2: End Use, 2026 Share

Leading Share	2026 market share
Confectionery	26.0%
All Other Segments Combined Share	74.0%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the whole milk powder market, 2026.

Why does B2B and Direct Sales lead by Distribution Channel in the Whole Milk Powder Market in 2026?

B2B and direct sales are estimated to account for 82.0% of the Whole Milk Powder Market by distribution channel in 2026.

Most whole milk powder is sold in bulk by exporters to food makers, traders and reconstitution plants [1]. Prices follow the Global Dairy Trade benchmark [2]. The Global Dairy Trade event of 4 November 2026 drew 166 participating bidders, of which 111 won product [2]. B2C retail holds the remaining 18.0%. Branded consumer packs such as Nestle's Nido and Bear Brand fortified milk powders reach households [20].

Table 3: Distribution Channel, 2026 Share

Leading Share	2026 market share
B2B and Direct Sales	82.0%
All Other Segments Combined Share	18.0%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the whole milk powder market, 2026.

Why does Cow Milk lead by Source in the Whole Milk Powder Market in 2026?

Cow milk is estimated to account for 96.0% of the Whole Milk Powder Market by source in 2026.

Cow milk makes up 81.0% of world milk production, buffalo milk 16.0% and goat, sheep and camel milk combined 3.0% [1], and powder for export comes from large grass-based and feed-based cow herds in New Zealand, the European Union, the United States and Argentina, which together are projected to supply 64.0% of world whole milk powder exports in 2035 [1]. Buffalo and other milks hold the remaining 4.0%. Buffalo milk is mostly consumed in India and Pakistan, which the OECD and FAO describe as self-sufficient with little trade [1], and goat and sheep powders are niche products in infant and specialty nutrition.

Table 4: Source, 2026 Share

Leading Share	2026 market share
Cow Milk	96.0%
All Other Segments Combined Share	4.0%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the whole milk powder market, 2026.

What are the key drivers, restraints and opportunities?

Driver

Import demand in milk-short regions. The OECD and FAO project that dairy consumption in Africa, Southeast Asia and the Near East and North Africa will grow faster than production, so imports will rise and be met largely by milk powders [1].

Firm prices in 2026. Whole milk powder prices have kept rising at Global Dairy Trade auctions [2]. Fonterra lifted its 2026/27 milk price midpoint on 30 October 2026 [17]. It cited whole milk powder demand from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and China [17].

Restraint

Lower Chinese import growth. The OECD and FAO expect growth in Chinese milk output to limit growth in whole milk powder imports [1], so exporters that depend on China face slower volume.

Supply and policy shocks. Dairy prices fell in the second half of 2025 when milk output in the main exporters exceeded expectations [1]. China has applied countervailing duties of 7.4% to 11.7% to EU cheese and high-fat milk and cream since 13 February 2026 [24]. Milk powders sit outside that case [25]. The Middle East conflict of 2026 has disrupted trade routes to a large dairy-importing region [5].

Opportunity

Africa's growing import market. Dairy imports into Nigeria are mostly powdered milk and cream that are reconstituted locally [7], a reconstituted milk route in which exporters that build local blending and packaging can capture more value per tonne.

Fortified and branded powders. Nestle lists Nido and Bear Brand among its fortified milk powders [20]. FMI expects fortified and branded powders to give exporters a route out of commodity pricing.

Whole Milk Powder Market by Country (2026 to 2036)

Table 5: Whole Milk Powder Market Country Growth Forecast

Country	CAGR, 2026 to 2036
Nigeria	5.0%
Saudi Arabia	4.0%
Algeria	3.8%
Mexico	3.2%
China	2.0%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the whole milk powder market, 2026.

Nigeria

Nigeria imported USD 267 million of dairy in 2024 [7]. Population growth and low domestic milk output keep import demand high. FMI projects the fastest rate among the profiled countries, at 5.0% from 2026 to 2036.

Nigerian cattle supply about 570 million liters a year against a requirement of 1.6 billion, or 35.6% of demand [7]. Pastoralists hold at least 95% of dairy cows, and yields run at 0.5 to 1 liter per cow daily [7]. Weak cold chains and intermittent household power are the two main reasons households use powder over fresh milk [7]. The OECD and FAO expect African whole milk powder imports to rise considerably over the next ten years [1].

Price shapes the product mix as much as volume. Importers prefer fat-filled powder because its retail price is below skim and whole milk powder [7]. Whole milk powder therefore grows inside a price-sensitive segment, which limits the premium it can earn. The European Union holds 45% and New Zealand 42% of concentrated milk and cream exports to Nigeria in 2024 [7]. The 2023 to 2028 Dairy Development Policy asks powder importers to add 5% local content yearly [7]. Enforcement is rare, so the effect on trade is smaller than intended [7]. Landed cost against fat-filled powder therefore decides what importers buy [7]. Private traders carry the import risk, and no state office buys on their behalf [7][14].

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia increased its dairy imports in 2025 [1]. Imports into the Middle East consist mainly of milk powders and functional dairy ingredients [5]. A 4.0% CAGR is projected for the Saudi market over 2026 to 2036.

Foodservice growth and import reliance explain Saudi demand. The Kingdom imports about 70% of its food needs, and its population is 33.1 million [15]. Hotel, restaurant and institutional revenue reached USD 29 billion in 2024, with 10% yearly growth projected [16]. That sector sources about 70% of its ingredients abroad [15]. Labor camps, tourists and religious visitors drive that growth, and about 13 million expatriates live in the country [15]. Dairy imports were USD 1.5 billion in 2024, with New Zealand named the main exporter of milk powder [16].

Logistics add a cost risk to Saudi imports in 2026. The Middle East war has removed the Red Sea, Suez and at times Hormuz from normal dairy trade [5]. Jeddah and other ports are sidelined, so dairy flows shift to longer Cape routes [5]. The European Union and New Zealand supply 33% and 17% of Middle East dairy imports, or half combined [5]. Hotel and catering buyers therefore depend on Cape routing for the two origins that supply half of regional dairy imports [5][15]. Demand has held through the disruption. A New Zealand dairy cooperative cited sustained Middle East demand for whole milk powder on 30 October 2026 [17].

Algeria

USDA forecasts Algerian whole milk powder imports at 270 thousand tonnes in 2026 [10]. Only China imports more among the countries USDA tracks [10]. Total milk powder imports fell in 2025, according to the OECD and FAO [1]. Algeria is projected to post a 3.8% CAGR for 2026 to 2036, as state-managed purchasing keeps volumes broadly steady.

State policy sets the volume of Algerian powder demand. USDA forecasts whole milk powder use of 268 thousand tonnes in 2026 against imports of 270 thousand tonnes [10]. Imports therefore cover all use [10]. The state office ONIL imported 46% of national milk powder needs in 2021, while private dairies imported the rest [14]. Dairies obtain subsidized powder only if they collect raw milk [14]. Dairies collected 879 million liters of milk in 2021, which is 26.7% of the 3.29 billion liters produced [14].

USDA data show whole milk powder use of 260 thousand tonnes in 2022 [10]. The forecast for 2026 is 268 thousand tonnes [10]. Volume is nearly flat, so the 3.8% CAGR depends mostly on price and mix. The state subsidizes imported powder, and Algerian researchers call powder imports a considerable cost to the budget [14]. Baladna of Qatar and the Algerian National Investment Fund are building a USD 3.5 billion dairy complex in Adrar [22]. It is scheduled to start milk powder production in late 2027 and to meet about 50% of Algerian needs [22]. Its powder plant was 28% built in October 2026 [23]. Until it ramps up, imports keep covering domestic use, so the budget stays exposed to world powder prices [10][14].

Mexico

Mexico reduced dairy imports in 2025 [1]. Domestic plants already supply most of the whole milk powder it uses [11]. Compound annual growth of 3.2% is projected for Mexico between 2026 and 2036.

Whole milk powder is a niche beside skim powder in Mexico. USDA forecasts 2026 imports of 390 thousand tonnes of skim powder but only 10 thousand of whole milk powder [11]. Processors prefer the skim product because it is cheaper and lets them add their own fat [11]. Domestic plants make 125 thousand tonnes against 133 thousand tonnes used, a coverage of 94.0% [11]. Confectionery, bakery and infant formula makers form the core of that demand [11]. Hotels, restaurants and cafes add to it, and 63.7 million international visitors arrived from January to August 2025 [11].

Growth stays moderate because domestic supply is flat and imports cover only the shortfall [11]. Production has stayed at 125 thousand tonnes since 2024 because processors direct additional milk to cheese and yogurt [11]. The government plans MXN 13.5 billion for drying and pasteurization plants, but the focus is skim powder [11]. Use rises from 126 thousand tonnes in 2024 to 133 thousand tonnes in 2026 [11]. USDA forecasts whole milk powder imports of 10 thousand tonnes in 2026, up 43% from 7 thousand [11]. It ties that rise to hotel, restaurant and bakery demand, which flat local output cannot meet [11].

China

China remains the principal importer of New Zealand whole milk powder [1]. Imports are projected to keep falling as domestic milk output grows [1]. New Zealand supplies 45.0% of China's dairy imports and the European Union 28.0%, on 2023 to 2025 averages [6]. FMI projects the slowest rate among the profiled countries, at 2.0% from 2026 to 2036.

Chinese whole milk powder imports fall from 699 thousand tonnes in 2022 to a forecast 415 thousand in 2026 [10]. Domestic use falls from 1.75 million to 1.50 million tonnes over the same period [10]. Imports fall from 40.0% of use in 2022 to 27.7% in 2026 [10]. A standard effective 16 September 2025 requires UHT pure milk to come from raw milk and bans reconstitution [12].

Remaining imports are hard to replace. Most beverage, ice cream and bakery programs already use domestic powder, so substitution is largely complete [12]. Infant formula and brand-locked inputs still require qualified foreign powder, which anchors the import base [12]. Processors direct milk to butter, cream and cheese because powder underperforms on cost against price [12]. USDA forecasts production of 1.14 million tonnes in 2026, 3.0% below 2024 [10]. Provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi still subsidize powder to absorb seasonal surplus milk [13]. AHDB notes that China remains heavily reliant on imports for infant formula, whole milk powder and whey proteins [6]. Suppliers qualified for brand-locked programs therefore keep access while total volume falls [12].

Who are the notable companies in the Whole Milk Powder Market?

Notable companies in the Whole Milk Powder Market include Fonterra, Lactalis, Arla, Nestle and FrieslandCampina.

Access to surplus milk, and the freedom to divert it to other products, separates whole milk powder suppliers. Fonterra reported FY26 Ingredients operating profit of NZD 1,293 million [3]. On 24 September 2026 it announced a further NZD 1.0 billion for South Island protein plants [3]. The plants are due to operate in 2029 and will take more New Zealand milk out of whole milk powder [3]. Many buyers list New Zealand as a primary origin and add secondary origins [4].

Lactalis and Arla sell powder as one part of larger dairy businesses. Lactalis completed the purchase of Fonterra's Mainland Group on 31 March 2026 [18]. It buys New Zealand raw milk under a supply agreement of at least 10 years [18]. Arla and DMK merged with effect from 1 June 2026, creating a milk pool of about 20 billion kg [19]. Arla sold 35.4% of its milk solids through Global Industry Sales in the first half of 2026 [19]. A year earlier the share was 28.5% [19].

Nestle and Royal FrieslandCampina sell branded powder in import markets. Nestle lists Nido and Bear Brand among its fortified milk powders [20]. FrieslandCampina WAMCO has sold Peak milk in Nigeria since 1954, and its range includes Peak Instant Milk Powder [21]. FrieslandCampina signed 411 million kg of new milk in 2025 from 182 dairy farms [8].

Key Developments in the Whole Milk Powder Market

• Arla and DMK completed their merger on 1 June 2026 [19]. The cooperative has a milk pool of about 20 billion kg [19].
• On 24 September 2026 Fonterra announced a NZD 1.0 billion South Island protein investment [3]. More New Zealand milk is planned to shift from whole milk powder into higher-value proteins from 2029.
• In October 2026 construction of the milk powder plant in the Baladna project in Adrar, Algeria, reached 28% [23]. The plant is scheduled to start production in late 2027 and to meet about 50% of Algerian needs [22].

Key Players in the Whole Milk Powder Market

• Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
• Groupe Lactalis
• Arla Foods amba
• Nestle S.A. (NIDO)
• Royal FrieslandCampina N.V.

Whole Milk Powder Market Report Scope

Table 6: Whole Milk Powder Market Report Scope

Coverage field	Report scope
Market definition	Spray-dried whole milk powder, including instant and regular grades, sold to food manufacturers, traders and consumers, valued at manufacturer selling prices. Skim milk powder, infant formula and fat-filled powders are excluded.
End Use	Confectionery; Dairy Products; Bakery; Infant Formula; Reconstituted Milk and Retail Packs
Distribution Channel	B2B and Direct Sales; B2C Retail
Source	Cow Milk; Buffalo Milk; Goat, Sheep and Other Milk
Regions and profiled countries	North America, Latin America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Oceania, Middle East and Africa
Companies covered	Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited; Groupe Lactalis; Arla Foods amba; Nestle S.A. (NIDO); Royal FrieslandCampina N.V.
Quantitative Units	USD million

Whole Milk Powder Market by Segments

Whole Milk Powder Market segmented by End Use:

• Confectionery
• Dairy Products
• Bakery
• Infant Formula
• Reconstituted Milk and Retail Packs

Whole Milk Powder Market segmented by Distribution Channel:

• B2B and Direct Sales
• B2C Retail

Whole Milk Powder Market segmented by Source:

• Cow Milk
• Buffalo Milk
• Goat, Sheep and Other Milk

Whole Milk Powder Market by Region

• North America
• Latin America
• Europe
• East Asia
• South Asia
• Oceania
• Middle East
• Africa
• Nigeria
• Saudi Arabia
• Algeria
• Mexico
• China

Research Sources and Bibliography

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