Scope is fixed at Product × Technology × Application × Channel × Region (7 regions, 30 countries). Units (value/volume) and currency basis are defined upfront. Monthly signals inform quarterly baselines; forecasts run at constant FX unless scenario analysis dictates otherwise.
We count shipments once at the point of vendor to channel dispatch, and we avoid any double counting of OEM transfers. Our treatment excludes subsidiary inventory until it enters the channel. We reassign re exports to the country of final use when that path can be determined. Our framework includes manufacturer self consumption and bona fide donations to maintain installed base integrity.
We capture ASP at the distributor level, with freight, insurance, and import duties embedded within vendor or channel pricing, while POS taxes remain excluded. Our process normalizes outliers. We weight prices across international, domestic, and China based vendors by geography and application. For bulk chemicals and intermediates, we apply bulk distributor price references.
Brand share = Brand Value ÷ Category Value by geography and channel. In the absence of EPOS, brand value is triangulated from filings and public multi-signal proxies (SRAP/PII/RHI), calibrated to disclosed anchors and bounded by corridor tests.
We compile trade flows using HS code structures and apply mirror stat checks to reduce bilateral reporting gaps. Our team adjusts for re exports that pass through known hubs, corrects for FOB and CIF valuation differences, and accounts for reclassification episodes that distort continuity. Time alignment and currency normalization are applied before we close apparent consumption using the standard Production plus Imports minus Exports plus or minus stock change rule whenever stock data is visible.
Our allocation approach distributes revenue and volume across direct, distributor or wholesale, retail or mass, pharmacy or specialty, e commerce, and tender or government routes. We model channel margin stacks rather than treating them as static values. Leakage from grey or parallel channels is estimated through guardrails, anomaly flags, and pattern checks in pricing and availability data.
We map the network from inputs to end use, incorporating capacity, utilization, yield loss, scrap levels, lead times, lane reliability, and inventory governance. Concentration levels and single point exposures are stress tested under demand pressure and supply disruptions. Our supplier scorecards track quality, cost discipline, delivery reliability, and risk posture.
Our first structure uses regression methods built on predictors such as production, utilization, trade, capex cues, approvals, and price corridor anchors. Stability checks, residual diagnostics, structural break management, and backtests strengthen the fit. A second structure applies driver growth rates to audited baselines, with weights that evolve based on realized outcomes and are revised when shocks or rebases occur. We then triangulate with category depth reviews, per population intensity checks, and economic envelope guardrails to derive value, volume, installed base, and price scenarios with confidence ranges.
Accuracy for regression models is monitored through MAPE and diagnostic indicators, while driver-based models rely on correlation and backtest performance supported by volatility informed tolerance bands. We reconcile series through apparent consumption closure and test pricing and FX or capacity guardrails to ensure coherence. Our workflow includes a dual analyst check, and change logs maintain a clear record of decisions and rationale.
Value = Units × ASP; Installed Base = Σ Shipments − Retirements; Apparent Capacity = Production / Capacity Factor; Brand Share = Brand Value ÷ Category Value; Channel Mix = Channel Revenue ÷ Total; Export–Import Balance = Exports − Imports.
UN Comtrade / ITC Trade Map; Eurostat / PRODCOM; US Census / BEA / BLS; OECD; IEA /EIA / USGS / UNCTADstat; FAOSTAT / USDA; FDA / EMA / PMDA / CDSCO; ClinicalTrials.gov / WHO ICTRP; OICA / ACEA / SIAM; EDGAR / SEMI / GSMA / 3GPP; EU TED / SAM.gov; public retail signals (filings, store locators, circulars, app stores, public social). Lineage cards display pull dates, access type, transforms, confidence tier, and caveats.
Quarterly baselines with monthly micro-updates for high-frequency shifts; rapid shock notes for policy / outage / recall / price spikes. Deliverables include executive memo, workbook / models, 16:9 dashboards with lineage, and a change log. Optional: weekly SRAP / PII / RHI tiles for retail.
Methodology
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