FMI iDEA Methodology — Real‑Life Case Appendix

1. EU Passenger Cars — Demand vs Supply That Closes

What we measured. Country-level new registrations (demand) from ACEA and vehicle production (supply) from OICA. Each country sheet closes apparent consumption and rolls up to regions; regions are softly aligned to OEM geography disclosures without violating price/capacity corridors.

Core identity (country closure):

C_c,t ≈ Q_c,t + M_c,t − X_c,t

Value math (per country):

V_c,t = U_c,t × P_c,t (Units × ASP)

Regional soft‑anchor (constrained least squares) keeps country logic intact while nudging to disclosure bands.

Checks we ran:

• Mirror-statistics gap on imports/exports < 3%; re-export corridors via known hubs netted out.
• ASP corridor respected across channels; no negative margins after landed-cost adjustments.
• Capacity factor sanity (80–90%) at plant level where visible; utilization within historical band.
• OEM regional split: On‑band or Near‑band after soft adjustment; deltas logged in change log.

2. Construction Markets — When the Driver Is the Dataset

Problem. Short or volatile official series; revisions/late postings. We anchor at the last audited point and forecast missing months with Eurostat Production in Construction Index (PCI) and construction price/cost indices, then re-test value against ASP and capacity corridors.

Driver growth blend:

V̂_t = V_{t−1} × ∏_j (1 + w_j · g_{j,t}), with Σ w_j = 1, w_j ≥ 0

QC loop (client-visible):

• PCI momentum card vs reported revenue path
• ASP corridor test and mix sanity (price/cost indices)
• Capacity factor and labor availability sanity by region
• Weights cross-validated; driver list and caps shown on lineage chip

3. Manufacturing Product Lines — Confidential Cells and Revisions (PRODCOM)

Reality. PRODCOM cells may be confidential or revised later, creating holes. We detect flags, decide fill method, and reconcile back to trade and capacity.

Flag-aware gap fill:

If flags show 'missing' with adjacent years available:

CAGR = (V_{t+1}/V_{t−1})^{1/2} − 1; V̂_t = V_{t−1} · (1 + CAGR)

If series is choppy or re-based: use driver blend (as in Case 2).

We publish the flag ('C' confidential, 'L' missing) beside the filled cell and keep confidence at Tier B until official release arrives.

4. Semiconductors — Regional Splits Soft‑Anchored to Bellwether Disclosures

Use case. Country bottom-up is noisy in small markets. We pull a bellwether's (e.g., TSMC) regional revenue shares as a soft anchor and nudge regional totals without violating country-level corridors.

Constraint sketch:

min Σ_r ((V_r − V̂_r^{filings})/σ_r)^2 s.t. Σ_{c∈r} V_c = V_r, V_c ≥ 0

Client sees a 'Regional alignment' chip: On‑band / Near‑band, with doc reference and pull date.

5. Medical Devices — Brand Shares Grounded in the Label Universe (GUDID)

Why. Brand shares and installed base drift without a clean device universe. We join vendor/product masters to FDA GUDID (via AccessGUDID), dedupe by DI, regroup families, and link recalls to survival curves (retirements).

Installed base and recall linkage:

IB_t = IB_{t−1} + Ship_t − Retire_t, with Retire_t from survival S(a) and recall shocks applied to affected cohorts

Client impact: cleaner shipment roll-ups; recall quarters show a transparent step in retirements; lineage lists DI coverage and pull dates.

6. Packaging (PET Bottle‑Grade) — Trade Defence Moves Value Without More Tons

Observation. EU apparent consumption (value) rose with flat tonnage. Diagnosis: anti‑dumping measures lifted effective import prices and altered supplier mix.

Tonnage closure holds:

C = Q + M − X (tons), while Value = Tons × ASP with ASP corridor mid adjusted for duty‑impacted origins

We mark the duty start as a vertical step on the series and raise the corridor mid for affected import lanes; brand/channel ladders are re-tested for margin consistency.

Client Reading Checklist (What’s Always Visible)

• Narrative: what happened, what we did, why it’s defensible
• Tiny formula card beside each chart/table
• Borderless bullet list of the exact checks run
• Lineage chip: sources, pull dates, transforms, confidence tier, caveat
• Breadcrumbs: Country → Region → World with On‑band/Near‑band badges where soft anchors apply

FMI iDEA — Assumptions visible. No sleight of hand.