FMI iDEA Methodology — Real‑Life Case Appendix

1. EU Passenger Cars — Demand vs Supply That Closes

What we measure. We use ACEA country-level new registrations for demand and OICA production data for supply. Each country closes apparent consumption and feeds into regional aggregates. We soft-align those regions to OEM geography disclosures without crossing price or capacity corridor limits.

Core identity (country closure):

C_c,t ≈ Q_c,t + M_c,t − X_c,t

Value math (per country):

V_c,t = U_c,t × P_c,t (Units × ASP)

Regional soft‑anchor (constrained least squares) keeps country logic intact while nudging to disclosure bands.

Checks we ran:

• Mirror-statistics gap on imports/exports < 3%; re-export corridors via known hubs netted out.
• ASP corridor respected across channels; no negative margins after landed-cost adjustments.
• Capacity factor sanity (80–90%) at plant level where visible; utilization within historical band.
• OEM regional split: On‑band or Near‑band after soft adjustment; deltas logged in change log.

2. Construction Markets — When the Driver Is the Dataset

Our workflow handles short official series, volatile postings, and late revisions. We anchor at the last audited point and extend the series using Eurostat PCI and construction price/cost indices. Value is then checked against ASP behaviour and capacity corridors.

Driver growth blend:

V̂_t = V_{t−1} × ∏_j (1 + w_j · g_{j,t}), with Σ w_j = 1, w_j ≥ 0

QC loop (client-visible):

• PCI momentum card vs reported revenue path
• ASP corridor test and mix sanity (price/cost indices)
• Capacity factor and labor availability sanity by region
• Weights cross-validated; driver list and caps shown on lineage chip

3. Manufacturing Product Lines — Confidential Cells and Revisions (PRODCOM)

PRODCOM cells may be confidential or revised later, creating holes. We detect flags, decide fill method, and reconcile back to trade and capacity.

Flag-aware gap fill:

If flags show 'missing' with adjacent years available:

CAGR = (V_{t+1}/V_{t−1})^{1/2} − 1; V̂_t = V_{t−1} · (1 + CAGR)

If series is choppy or re-based: use driver blend (as in Case 2).

We publish the flag ('C' confidential, 'L' missing) beside the filled cell and keep confidence at Tier B until official release arrives.

4. Semiconductors — Regional Splits Soft‑Anchored to Bellwether Disclosures

Country bottom-up is noisy in small markets. We pull a bellwether's (e.g., TSMC) regional revenue shares as a soft anchor and nudge regional totals without violating country-level corridors.

Constraint sketch:

min Σ_r ((V_r − V̂_r^{filings})/σ_r)^2 s.t. Σ_{c∈r} V_c = V_r, V_c ≥ 0

Client sees a 'Regional alignment' chip: On‑band / Near‑band, with doc reference and pull date.

5. Medical Devices — Brand Shares Grounded in the Label Universe (GUDID)

Brand shares and installed base drift without a clean device universe. We join vendor/product master’s to FDA GUDID (via AccessGUDID), dedupe by DI, regroup families, and link recalls to survival curves (retirements).

Installed base and recall linkage:

IB_t = IB_{t−1} + Ship_t − Retire_t, with Retire_t from survival S(a) and recall shocks applied to affected cohorts

Client impact: cleaner shipment roll-ups; recall quarters show a transparent step in retirements; lineage lists DI coverage and pull dates.

6. Packaging (PET Bottle‑Grade) — Trade Defence Moves Value Without More Tons

Observation. EU apparent consumption (value) rose with flat tonnage. Diagnosis: anti dumping measures lifted effective import prices and altered supplier mix.

Tonnage closure holds:

C = Q + M − X (tons), while Value = Tons × ASP with ASP corridor mid adjusted for duty‑impacted origins

We mark the duty start as a vertical step on the series and raise the corridor mid for affected import lanes; brand/channel ladders are re-tested for margin consistency.

Client Reading Checklist (What’s Always Visible)

• Narrative: what happened, what we did, why it’s defensible
• Tiny formula card beside each chart/table
• Borderless bullet list of the exact checks run
• Lineage chip: sources, pull dates, transforms, confidence tier, caveat
• Breadcrumbs: Country → Region → World with On‑band/Near‑band badges where soft anchors apply

FMI iDEA — Assumptions visible. No sleight of hand.