At FMI, we set scope across Product, Technology, Application, Channel, and Region spanning seven regions and thirty countries. Our unit basis for value and volume and our currency treatment is defined upfront. Monthly signals feed quarterly baselines and forecasts run at constant FX unless scenario work requires a different path. Segment trees are locked before data ingestion, and any adjustment moves through formal change control.
We count shipments only when vendors dispatch new products to channels or end users and OEM transfers are not counted twice. Subsidiary stock enters the series only when it reaches the channel. Re exports are reassigned to the country of final use when the path is clear. Our installed base logic includes manufacturer self-consumption and bona fide donations to keep lineage intact.
ASP is taken from distributor level pricing with freight, insurance, and import or export related duties embedded in vendor or channel pricing while point of sale taxes remain excluded. Outliers are normalized and pricing is weighted across international, domestic, and China based vendors using geography and application mixes. Bulk intermediates such as industrial automation materials or process chemicals follow bulk distributor price references.
Our brand share structure uses Brand Value divided by Category Value for the chosen geography and channel. When EPOS is not available, we triangulate brand value using filings, tender disclosures, distributor catalogs, and public multi signal proxies calibrated to disclosed anchors and checked through corridor bounds.
Trade flows are compiled using HS codes supported by mirror statistics to identify reporting gaps. Adjustments cover re exports through hubs, valuation differences between FOB and CIF, and classification changes. Series are time aligned and currency normalized and apparent consumption closes as Production plus Imports minus Exports with stock change applied when observable.
Our allocation framework distributes revenue and volume across direct, distributor or wholesale, retail or aftermarket, e commerce or marketplace, system integrator or EPC, and tender or government channels depending on the automation category. Margin stacks are modeled by route and leakage across grey or parallel trade is bounded through guardrails, pricing corridors, and availability anomalies. Attach rate models quantify linked services, spares, and automation consumables.
We map the supply chain from input to end use covering capacity, utilization, yield loss, scrap, lead times, lane reliability, and inventory rules. Concentration indicators highlight exposure and single point vulnerabilities are stress tested under demand surges and supply disruptions typical in automation components and controls. Supplier scorecards capture quality, on time delivery, cost variance, and risk signals.
Our first forecasting structure uses regression models with predictors from production, utilization, trade, capex cycles, approvals, standards, orders, and pricing corridors. Stability checks, residual tests, break detection, and backtesting confirm performance.
A second structure applies weighted driver growth to the latest audited baseline when data are thin or volatile. Weights adjust to realized outcomes without overfitting and update when drivers rebase or shocks occur. Triangulation draws from Product Category Analysis, per population intensity, and an Economic Envelope to validate feasibility within industrial automation budgets and macro constraints.
Accuracy for regression models is monitored through MAPE along with residual and stability diagnostics. Growth rate structures are validated through correlation checks and backtests against prior vintages with tolerance bands shaped by category volatility. Apparent consumption is reconciled, price corridors and FX or capacity constraints are tested, and a second analyst signs off each change with rationale logged for audit.
Value = Units × ASP; Installed Base = Σ Shipments − Retirements; Apparent Capacity = Production / Capacity Factor; Brand Share = Brand Value ÷ Category Value; Channel Mix = Channel Revenue ÷ Total; Export–Import Balance = Exports − Imports.
UN Comtrade/ITC Trade Map; Eurostat/PRODCOM; US Census/BEA/BLS; OECD; IEA/EIA/USGS/UNCTADstat; FAOSTAT/USDA; FDA/EMA/PMDA/CDSCO; ClinicalTrials.gov/WHO ICTRP; OICA/ACEA/SIAM; EDGAR/SEMI/GSMA/3GPP; EU TED/SAM.gov; public retail signals (filings, store locators, circulars, app stores, public social). Lineage cards display pull dates, access type, transforms, confidence tier, and caveats.
Quarterly baselines with monthly micro-updates for high-frequency shifts; rapid shock notes for policy/outage/recall/price spikes. Deliverables include executive memo, workbook/models, 16:9 dashboards with lineage, and a change log. Optional: weekly SRAP/PII/RHI tiles for retail.
Methodology
Thank you!
You will receive an email from our Business Development Manager. Please be sure to check your SPAM/JUNK folder too.
