Scope is fixed at Product × Technology × Application × Channel × Region, covering seven regions and thirty countries. Units for value and volume, along with the currency basis, are defined upfront to maintain consistency in our measurement framework. Monthly signals inform quarterly baselines, and forecasts run at constant FX unless scenario analysis requires an alternate treatment.
We count shipments once at vendor-to-channel dispatch, ensuring OEM transfers are not double-counted. Subsidiary inventory is excluded until it enters the channel. Re-exports are reassigned to the country of final use when determinable, and manufacturer self-consumption along with bona-fide donations is captured to maintain installed-base integrity.
ASP is collected at the distributor level, with freight, insurance, and import duties reflected within vendor or channel pricing; POS taxes remain outside the scope. Outliers are normalized. Prices are weighted across international, domestic, and China-based vendors based on geography and application. Bulk chemicals and intermediates follow bulk distributor pricing.
Brand share is measured as Brand Value ÷ Category Value by geography and channel. When EPOS data is unavailable, we triangulate brand value using filings and public multi-signal proxies (SRAP, PII, RHI), calibrated to disclosed anchors and bounded by corridor tests.
At FMI, trade flows are compiled using HS codes and validated through mirror-stat checks to identify gaps. Adjustments account for re-exports through known hubs, valuation differences between FOB and CIF, and reclassification events. Series are time-aligned and currency-normalized. Apparent consumption closes using Production + Imports − Exports ± Stock Change where stock data is observable.
Revenue and volume are allocated across direct, distributor/wholesale, retail/mass, pharmacy/specialty, e-commerce, and tender/government channels. We model margin stacks for each channel and estimate leakage from grey or parallel trade using guardrails and anomaly detection on pricing and availability.
Supply chains are mapped from input to end-use, covering capacity, utilization, lead times, yield loss, scrap, lane reliability, and inventory policies. Our diagnostics identify concentration points and single-node vulnerabilities, which are then stress-tested under demand and supply shocks. Supplier scorecards track quality, on-time delivery, cost variance, and risk indicators to support reliability assessment.
Method 1 uses regression-based structures, supported by predictors from production, utilization, trade flows, capex, approvals, and pricing corridors. Stability tests, residual diagnostics, structural break handling, and backtesting are incorporated to validate model strength.
Method 2 applies driver growth-rate structures, with weighted driver growth applied to audited baselines. We tune weights to realized outcomes, updating them when drivers rebase or unexpected shocks occur.
Triangulation tools include Product Category Analysis, n-per-Population intensity, and Economic Envelope guardrails. Our outputs include value, volume, installed base, and price scenarios with confidence bands.
Regression accuracy is monitored using MAPE supported by residual diagnostics and stability reviews. Growth-rate models are validated through correlation checks and backtests, with tolerance bands set according to category volatility. Reconciliation ensures closure of apparent consumption, and we test price corridors alongside FX and capacity constraints. A dual-analyst review is required for all outputs and change logs document the rationale for every revision.
Value = Units × ASP; Installed Base = Σ Shipments − Retirements; Apparent Capacity = Production / Capacity Factor; Brand Share = Brand Value ÷ Category Value; Channel Mix = Channel Revenue ÷ Total; Export–Import Balance = Exports − Imports.
UN Comtrade/ITC Trade Map; Eurostat/PRODCOM; US Census/BEA/BLS; OECD; IEA/EIA/USGS/UNCTADstat; FAOSTAT/USDA; FDA/EMA/PMDA/CDSCO; ClinicalTrials.gov/WHO ICTRP; OICA/ACEA/SIAM; EDGAR/SEMI/GSMA/3GPP; EU TED/SAM.gov; public retail signals (filings, store locators, circulars, app stores, public social). Lineage cards display pull dates, access type, transforms, confidence tier, and caveats.
Quarterly baselines with monthly micro-updates for high-frequency shifts; rapid shock notes for policy/outage/recall/price spikes. Deliverables include executive memo, workbook/models, 16:9 dashboards with lineage, and a change log. Optional: weekly SRAP/PII/RHI tiles for retail.
Methodology
Thank you!
You will receive an email from our Business Development Manager. Please be sure to check your SPAM/JUNK folder too.
