The global PAG base stock market is currently valued at USD 2.03 Billion and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% during the forecast period. According to projections, the market will witness market growth of USD 4.6 Billion in 2033.
Base oils formed from polyalkylene glycol react with alkylene oxides, also called polyglycols or PAGs. Many lubricants are produced using polyalkylene glycol base stocks, including gear oils, compressor oils, fire-resistant hydraulic fluids, quenchants, aluminum processing fluids, chain, metalworking fluids, and food-grade lubricants such as the NSF HX-1.
As base stocks for formulating high-performance industrial lubricants, they are excellent thermal and oxidative stability, offer excellent lubricity, and are highly film-stable, wear-resistant, and micro-pitting-resistant.
As a heat transfer fluid, high-temperature bearing oil, and in screw-type refrigeration compressors, water-insoluble (oil-soluble) polyglycols are going to become more common in the future years. It is estimated that only 2% of the market is currently covered by synthetic lubricants, which represent the majority of the demand for lubricants based on mineral oils. However, many technological advances would not be possible without improvements in synthetic lubricants.
| Report Attribute | Details |
|---|---|
| Expected Market Value (2023) | USD 2.03 Billion |
| Projected Forecast Value (2033) | USD 4.6 Billion |
| Global Growth Rate (2023 to 2033) | 8.5% CAGR |
According to market research and competitive intelligence provider FMI, the PAG base stock industry grew at a CAGR of 6.25% from 2018 to 2022. PAG oils provide excellent lubricity, excellent temperature stability, and a high natural viscosity index. Depending on the viscosity grade and the form of the base fluid, PAG base fluids can be obtained in water-soluble as well as water-insoluble forms.
As HVAC and refrigeration demand continues to grow globally, the PAG stock market will continue to benefit. Although fluids live for decades, their viscosity remains relatively stable. Due to their water tolerance, PAG oils may have higher water limits than hydrocarbon fluids. Globally, the market for PAG base oils will expand as countries focus on reducing carbon emissions.
According to reports, even during the pandemic crisis, spending on PAG base oil increased by over 6%. Following the pandemic, automotive production increased as the world returns to normalcy. The overall industry is expected to experience substantial gains in the future due to the expansion of business operations, growing innovations to reduce carbon emissions, and the growing awareness of the environment. According to forecasts, the PAG base stock market will grow at an 8.5% CAGR between 2023 and 2033.
With the rising demand for lubricants, both in the automotive industry as well as with the surge in demand for lubricants in electric cars, the lubricant market is expected to experience growth over the next few years. The increasing production of automobiles and the expansion of the automotive market are expected to positively impact the market development globally. The construction activities and infrastructural developments that have been taking place around the world are forecast to further drive the growth of the global construction market.
A number of factors are contributing to the rapid growth of the PAG base oil market. These factors include the scale of aircraft production, the popularity of travel and tourism, the booming business activities, and the need for textile items are all expected to contribute to the market demand. There is an increase in the demand from various end-use industries for high-performance lubricants, which can be attributed to the growth in the global PAG base oil market. Further, there are numerous environmental regulations that also contribute to the increased demand for PAG base oils all over the world.
Increasing Regulation to Reduce Global Warming Impacts is Likely to Boost Demand for Lubricants.
Government/industry research is being carried out on Advanced Petroleum Based Fuels - Diesel Emission Control (APBF-DEC) to develop low-emission diesel engines for the future. Anti-wear additives in lubricating oil are also suspected of causing diesel exhaust systems problems, similar to those for gasoline systems. According to forecasts, the market for base oils is expected to grow further due to increasing carbon emissions and environmental concerns.
The performance and durability of diesel emission control systems are being examined by a cooperative research project analyzing lubricant formulation (base stocks and additives). EMA, MECA, Engine Manufacturers Association, National Petrochemical & Refiners Association, American Chemistry Council, and various California regulatory agencies all contribute to the research funded by the Department of Energy's Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies. A number of California regulatory agencies, as well as API, NPRA, and several petrochemical & refinery associations, also participate in the consortium.
Commercial and experimental lubricant additive systems were tested with four conventionally available lubricant base stocks. In order to determine the real impact of lubricant oil compositions, an experimental design was used to ensure that the formulations tested would be the most useful. Future lubricant formulations for light-duty and heavy-duty diesel engines will be shaped by the results of this study.
Price volatility and a decline in the base stock demand will stymie the sales
A high degree of volatility in prices and issues with the supply chain are expected to hamper the growth of the industry. As a result of the high availability of substitutes, the market is expected to decline further in the future.
As a result of the switch from internal combustion engines (ICEs)-powered cars to electric vehicles (EVs), the requirement for lubricants would be reduced, which, in turn, would reduce the demand for base stocks. Thus, base stock demand may decline in the short term, which would result in different API groups exhibiting different rates of growth or decline, depending on a variety of factors.
Polyalkylene glycol (PAG) Bases Oils have Grown Significantly in Popularity Because of Increasing Demand in the Automotive and Textile Industries.
The Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share for the PAG base stock market. According to forecasts, the market will capture 29% of the revenue share within the next few years.
PAG base lubricants are used by end users across multiple industries in large economies such as China, India, and Japan., Due to its rapid growth in the automobile and textile industries, China holds the largest market for PAG base stocks in the coming years. Therefore, this market is expected to increase in the coming years. Industrial production has increased in developing countries like India and China due to increased investment, which includes the use of PAG base oil in various industries.
For instance, China Electronic Information Industry Development expects to invest USD 1.4 trillion in new infrastructure and renewable energy projects from 2020 to 2025. As a result, PAG base stock markets are expected to grow in this region.
A rising economy and increasing disposable incomes in India are expected to boost the market for PAG base stock. For instance, Independent Truck Repair Group (iTRG) and Phillips 66 Lubricants teamed up for a national oil program in India. Through this new program, iTRG members will access special pricing, promotional materials, rebates, and enhanced education and technical support on Phillips 66 Company premium diesel products. This will bring more customers to Phillips 66 Company.
Carbon Emissions Regulations and Infrastructure Projects to Grow the Market
Between 2023 and 2033, the North American PAG base stock market is anticipated to exhibit a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% during the forecast period. A significant increase in commercial travel is expected to lead to a rise in the demand for PAG base stocks in the market. Due to the increasing infrastructure needs, the market demand for commercial spaces is also expected to grow the market for PAG base stocks. A growing presence of key industry players in this region is anticipated to drive market growth.
A stringent government regulation on carbon emissions, as well as a growing demand for high-end cars in this region, are expected to result in an increase in demand for PAG base stock in the future. For instance, In January 2021, BASF SE entered into an agreement with China Bluecchemical Limited Company (China BlueChemical). This partnership aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by improving the efficiency of the production processes, as well as improving the efficiency of carbon offsetting. By introducing this new product, BASF SE aims to attract a broader range of customers.
Rising Demand for Compressed Oils in Automotives is Expected to enhance the demand for PAG Base Oil
Based on application type the PAG base stock market is segmented into gear oils, fire-resistant hydraulic fluids, food-grade lubricants, compressor oils, wind turbine lubricants, metalworking and quenching fluids, and other applications. According to the forecast, the compressed oil segment will hold the largest revenue share of 38.5% from 2023 to 2033. Due to the reduction of wear and tear on rotating parts and the prevention of metals from rubbing against metal, the market for this product is expected to grow during the forecast period.
Several industries are contributing to the growth, including manufacturing, oil & gas, automotive, and power industries, which are all contributing to the growth. It is expected that the high demand for compressor oil will be largely driven by the need to lubricate compressors in order to ensure their proper performance during the forecast period as lubrication remains a significant factor fueling the market.
Bio-based compressor oil is also expected to see an increase in demand. The low carbon emissions of this oil make it a great option in areas with strict regulations. As the compressor oil market continues to develop, biobased oil is expected to remain a key factor.
Increasing Demand for Automotive is Expected to Boost PAG Base Oil Markets
According to the end-use segment, the automotive segment of the PAG base stock market is anticipated to grow at over 6.8% CAGR from 2023 to 2033. In 2022, PAG oil will see a boost in demand due to its ability to decrease friction and wear in automotive engines. The growing production demand for automobiles globally will continue to drive growth in the market in the near future.
As an engine oil, PAG base oil assists in controlling friction and wear of automotive engines and is used as compressor oil in combination with polyether in vehicles' air conditioning systems. Additionally, it plays an important role in controlling friction and wears in braking, clutching, and power steering systems.
A higher standard of living, more disposable income and rapid urbanization all contributed to the growth of the automobile market, which in turn brought about a rise in vehicle sales in the market. Automobile production is expected to pick up pace in developing economies, which will also lead to continued demand for PAGs.
How does the New Entrant Affect the PAG Base Stock Market?
As startup companies enter the market, they use lubricants in a wide range of applications to satisfy the demands of consumers. As innovative technologies emerge on the market, PAG base stock is becoming increasingly prominent in automobiles and textiles, making them more innovative and useful to consumers in the market. The market for bio-based oils for automotive parts has recently been flooded with startups that offer their products.
Some of the start-ups in the PAG base stock market include-
Major players in the PAG base oil market aim to meet consumer demands by offering innovative products. New products are being launched by leading manufacturers in collaboration with reputed brands in order to reach a broader audience. Researchers and developers are constantly developing innovative solutions to reduce carbon emissions for specific end uses.
| Report Attribute | Details |
|---|---|
| Growth Rate (2023 to 2033) | 8.5% |
| Expected Market Value (2023) | USD 2.03 Billion |
| ProjectedForecast Value (2033) | USD 4.6 Billion |
| Base Year for Estimation | 2022 |
| Historical Data | 2018 to 2022 |
| Forecast Period | 2023 to 2033 |
| Quantitative Units | Revenue in USD Million and CAGR from 2023 to 2033 |
| Report Coverage | Revenue Forecast, Volume Forecast, Company Ranking, Competitive Landscape, Growth Factors, Trends, and Pricing Analysis |
| Segments Covered | Type, Application, End Use, Region |
| Regions Covered | North America; Latin America; Europe; Asia Pacific; Middle East and Africa (MEA) |
| Key Countries Profiled | USA, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, Rest of Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Rest of Asia Pacific, GCC Countries, South Africa, Israel, Rest of MEA |
| Key Companies Profiled | BASF SE; The Dow Chemical Company; Clariant AG; Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.; Printed Circuit Board (PCC) Group; Fuchs Group; Croda International Plc; Exxon Mobil Corporation; Technical Lubricants International B.V.; Shandong Shing Chemical Co., Ltd. |
| Customization | Available Upon Request |
The global PAG base stock market is likely to reach a valuation of USD 2.03 Billion by the end of 2023.
BASF SE, The Dow Chemical Company, Clariant AG, Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd., PCC Group, and Fuchs Group
Sales of the PAG base stock market are likely to expand at 8.5% CAGR through 2033.
Automotive application is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% in the PAG base stock market.
By the end of 2033, the global market for the PAG base stock market is predicted to reach a valuation of USD 4.6 Million.
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