Dual Clutch Transmission Market

Dual-clutch Transmission Market: Robust Adoption Forecasted in Emerging Markets: Global Industry Analysis and Opportunity Assessment 2014-2020

Adoption of dual-clutch transmissions (DCT), once heralded as the future of transmission technology, is weaning off significantly in North America and Western Europe. However, DCT is expected to gain traction in emerging countries of Asia Pacific where higher fuel economy and ease of driving on congested roads continue to influence buying decisions. While the North America and Western Europe dual-clutch transmission market is anticipated to increase at single-digit compound annual growth rates (CAGR), market revenues in APAC are forecasted to increase at a staggering 16.14% CAGR through 2020. 

CVT Still Has an Edge, but DCT Growing Strongly

Manual- and automatic-transmissions are the most widely used transmission technologies in automotives globally, followed by continuously variable transmission (CVT), dual-clutch transmission, EV, and AMT. In 2014, 8461 thousand units came equipped with CVT vis-à-vis 4,765 thousand DCT units. However, owing to higher adoption in China, the largest market for automotives, growth rate of DCT will be higher than CVT. 

State of the Automotive Transmission Technology ('000 Units)

             

Year

Manual

Automatic

CVT

DCT

EV

MT

2014

XX

XX

8,461

4,765

XX

XX

2020

XX

XX

15798

10,907

XX

XX

(Concealed figures available in the report) 

Dry Clutch Transmissions will Witness Higher Adoption than Wet Clutch 

The two broad categories of dual-clutch transmissions are dry clutch and wet clutch. While the former is used in low-torque applications, the latter mainly finds its applications in diesel engines. Commercial vehicles with large displacement engines also use wet clutch technology. Nearly 3,755 thousand units of dry clutch transmission are expected to be sold in 2016, compared to 2,675 thousand units of wet clutch transmissions. High cost of wet clutch transmissions and their limited application in passenger vehicles will mean higher adoption of dry clutch in automotive transmission in 2016 and beyond. 

DCT Market Volume by Product Type ('000 Units)

         

Product

2015

2016

2020

 

Dry

XX

3,755

XX

Wet

XX

2,675

XX

(Concealed figures available in the report)

Asia Pacific will Remain the Largest Market for Dual-clutch Transmission

Regionally, the big 3 – Western Europe, APAC, and North America – collectively account for over 85% revenue share of the global dual-clutch transmission market. However, through 2020, both Western Europe and North America will continue to lose market share to APAC. Consumer dissatisfaction with dual-clutch transmission will continue to influence manufacturers to other transmission modes, especially CVT and EV. However, the technology will continue to gain traction among manufacturers in Asia Pacific.

The Asia Pacific dual-clutch transmission market is anticipated to witness an increase of 930 BPS during the forecast period 2014-2020. In terms of volume, APAC DCT market is expected to grow at an explosive 20.2% CAGR during the forecast period 2014-2020. In terms of volume growth, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, and Middle East & Africa (MEA) will follow APAC as the fastest growing markets.

Fastest Growing Markets (Volume CAGR)

       

 

Region

CAGR 2014-2020

 

1

Asia Pacific

20.20%

 

2

Eastern Europe

XX

 

3

Western Europe

XX

 

4

MEA

XX

 

(Concealed figures available in the report) 

Leading players in the dual-clutch transmission market, including BorgWarner Inc., Getrag, ZF Friedrichshafen, Continental, Eaton Corporation are focusing on boosting production in Asia Pacific to cater to the growing demand for DCTs.

This exhaustive study on dual-clutch transmission market by Future Market Insights offers market forecast and analysis during the period 2014-2020. The primary objective of the report is to offer updates on market opportunities in the global automotive dual clutch transmission market.

To understand and assess opportunities in this market, the report offers market analysis by,

  • Vehicle type
  • Product types
  • Regions

The report analyses the dual clutch transmission market in terms of market value (US$ Mn) and volume (Units)

The report starts with an overview on the evolution of dual clutch transmission systems. In the same section, FMI covers the dual clutch transmission system market performance in terms of global new unit installations and revenue split since this is detrimental to growth of DCT system market.  This section also includes FMI’s analysis of key trends, drivers and restraints from supply and demand perspective. Impact analysis of key growth drivers and restraints based on the weighted average model included in the report better equips and arms client with crystal clear decision making insights.

The next section of the report analyses the market based on vehicle type and presents the forecast in terms of volume and value through 2020. Vehicle types covered in the report include:

  • Passenger Vehicles
  • Commercial Vehicles

The next section of the report analyses the market based on product type and presents the forecast in terms of volume and value through 2020. Product types covered in the report include:

  • Dry Clutch
  • Wet Clutch

The next section of the report analyses the market based on regions and presents the forecast in terms of volume and value for the next five years,

Regions covered in the report include:

  • Asia Pacific
  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Latin America
  • Eastern Europe
  • Japan
  • Middle East & Africa

In the final section of the report, dual clutch transmission system landscape is included to provide report audiences with a dashboard view, based on categories of providers across the value chain, presence in dual clutch transmission product portfolio and key differentiators. Few of the market players featured in the section include:

  • ZF Friedrichshafen AG
  • Getrag
  • BorgWarner Inc.
  • Eaton
  • GKN Driveline
  • Continental

Research Methodology

All the above sections, by region and by capacity evaluate the present scenario and growth prospects of dual clutch transmission system market for the period 2014-2020. The report has considered 2013 as base year with market values estimated for year 2014 and forecast developed from 2014 onwards.

To calculate the market size, the report considers average price of dual clutch transmission system across geographies. Furthermore, data points such as regional split and market split by vehicle type, product type and qualitative inputs from primary respondents have been incorporated to arrive at apt market estimates. The forecast presented here assesses the total revenue as well as volume of dual clutch transmission system. When developing the forecast of the market, the starting point is sizing the current market, which forms the basis for the forecast of how the market is anticipated to take shape in the near future. Given the characteristics of market, we triangulated the outcome based on different analysis based on supply side, demand side and dynamics of parent market. However, quantifying the market across aforementioned segments and regions is more a matter of quantifying expectations and identifying opportunities rather than rationalizing them after the forecast has been completed.

In addition, it is imperative to note that in an ever-fluctuating global economy, we not only conduct forecasts in terms of CAGR, but also analyse on the basis of key parameters such as year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth to understand the predictability of the market and to identify the right opportunities across the dual clutch transmission market.

As previously highlighted, the market for dual clutch transmission is split into various sub categories based on region, product types and vehicle types. All these sub segments or categories have been analysed in terms of basis point share (BPS) to understand individual segments relative contribution to growth. This detailed level of information is important for identification of many key trends in dual clutch transmission market.

Also, another key feature of this report is the analysis of dual clutch transmission market by regions, product types and vehicle types and its revenue forecast in terms of absolute dollar. This is traditionally overlooked while forecasting the market. However, absolute dollar opportunity is critical in assessing the level of opportunity that a provider can look to achieve, as well as to identify potential resources from a sales perspective in the dual-clutch transmission market.

Furthermore, to understand key growth segments in terms of growth & adoption of dual clutch transmission systems, Future Market Insights developed market attractiveness index. The resulting index should help providers identify real market opportunities.