Food and Grocery Retail Market

How big is the Food and Grocery Retail Market in 2026?

The Food and Grocery Retail Market is projected to reach USD 19.6 billion by 2036 at a 5.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2036. FMI estimates the market at USD 11.8 billion in 2026. The market was valued at USD 11.2 billion in 2025. Digital ordering is growing faster than store-based retail. The US Census Bureau reported that e-commerce reached 17.1% of US retail sales in the second quarter of 2026, with online sales up 12.2% on a year earlier. Growth differs because weekly baskets are repeat purchases, so each household that adopts online ordering adds recurring volume.

Fulfilment economics remain the main limitation, because centralised automated sites need high order density to cover their fixed costs. Kroger expected about USD 2.6 billion of impairment and related charges after its automated network missed financial targets. It is now moving volume to store picking and third-party delivery, which spreads fulfilment cost across assets already in use. Demand itself is set by basket price. The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts a 2.3% rise in food-at-home prices for 2026 against 3.5% for food away from home. That spread keeps home cooking the cheaper option and sustains grocery order volumes.

Key Market Trends & Insights

• Stores are taking on more of the picking work. Target fulfilled 97.6% of its merchandise sales through stores in the quarter to August 2026, including Drive Up and same-day delivery orders. Grocers that pick from existing aisles add online volume without building new sites, which lowers the capital required per order.
• Own brands have become the main value lever. Ahold Delhaize lifted own-brand food penetration above 40.0% across the group during April to June 2026. Higher own-brand penetration lets retailers defend price perception while holding margin, because they control both shelf price and product cost.
• Online grocery growth now varies widely with market maturity. CBS reported that online turnover of Dutch food and drugstore retailers rose only 2.9% in September 2026, the lowest online growth of any retail branch. German online FMCG sales rose 10.4% in 2025 yet reached only 5.0% of total FMCG sales. Growth opportunities therefore differ sharply between mature and early-stage online markets.

Regional Highlights

• North American warehouse clubs and supermarket groups are turning store traffic into digital orders. Costco's digitally enabled comparable sales rose 20.9% in the fiscal year to August 2026. Results of this kind come from store networks that already hold fresh and chilled stock, which limits the added cost of each online order.
• In Europe, new packaging rules are changing how grocery orders are packed. EU rules on packaging apply from 12 August 2026 and require all packaging to be recyclable by 2030. They also aim to cut unnecessary packaging and empty space in deliveries. Online grocers will need to review totes, bags and insulated liners before those dates.

Food and Grocery Retail Market Size and Forecast

Table 1: Food and Grocery Retail Market Size and Forecast

Market size and forecast	Value
Market size in 2025	USD 11.2 billion
Estimated market size in 2026	USD 11.8 billion
Projected market size by 2036	USD 19.6 billion
CAGR from 2026 to 2036	5.2%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the food and grocery retail market, 2026.

Analyst Perspective

“Households select a grocer on basket price first and on slot availability second. Retailers differentiate through picking from stores they already operate and through strong own-brand ranges. The main barrier is the cost of each chilled order, because an automated site that runs below planned volume can lose money for years.”

- Nandini Roy Choudhury, Principal Analyst at Future Market Insights

How is the Food and Grocery Retail Market segmented?

• By product type / grade: Standard Commercial Grade, Organic & Clean-Label Variant, and Premium Specialty Formulation.
• By processing state: Fresh / Ambient Packaged, Frozen & Chilled, and Dehydrated & Dry Packaged.
• By end-use application: Direct Retail Consumer Consumption, Food Service & Hospitality, and Commercial Food Manufacturing Plants. Household orders placed through apps and websites overlap with the online grocery market that FMI tracks separately.
• By region: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, East Asia, South Asia and Pacific, and Middle East and Africa.

Why does Standard Commercial Grade lead by Product Type / Grade in the Food and Grocery Retail Market in 2026?

Standard Commercial Grade holds 55.3% of the Food and Grocery Retail Market by product type / grade in 2026.

Mainstream staples generate most repeat orders, and households buy them mainly on price. Cumulative inflation has made that price sensitivity stronger. Statistics Canada reported that food purchased from stores cost 33.0% more in September 2026 than in September 2020. Discount formats are capturing the resulting demand, and Loblaw said its discount banners outperformed again during April to June 2026. Grocers fund price investment on standard lines from supplier terms, media income and cost savings, so these lines generate volume at thin margins.

Organic & Clean-Label Variant and Premium Specialty Formulation together hold the remaining 44.7%. Ingredient standards are moving into mainstream ranges, which blurs the line between standard and clean-label products. ALDI US now labels every exclusive product with its own name and states that these items are free from certified synthetic colours. Ingredient choices at this level link grocery ranges with the clean-label ingredients market.

Table 2: Product Type / Grade, 2026 Share

Leading Share	2026 market share
Standard Commercial Grade	55.3%
All Other Segments Combined Share	44.7%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the food and grocery retail market, 2026.

Why does Fresh / Ambient Packaged lead by Processing State in the Food and Grocery Retail Market in 2026?

Fresh / Ambient Packaged accounts for 41.7% of Food and Grocery Retail Market revenue by processing state in 2026.

Fresh food sets how often households shop, while ambient packs fill the rest of the basket at low handling cost. Fresh lines are now driving like-for-like growth in mature store networks. Seven-Eleven Japan grew same-store sales by 1.1% in the six months reported in October 2026, with freshly prepared counter food contributing 0.9 percentage points. Carrefour cited sustained growth in fresh products in its Spanish hypermarkets between January and June 2026.

Fresh produce is also where price risk sits. The USDA expects fresh vegetable prices to rise 5.8% in 2026. Grocers must reprice these lines often, which raises markdown and waste risk in stores and in online orders.

Frozen & Chilled and Dehydrated & Dry Packaged formats together represent the remaining 58.3%. Frozen and chilled orders need insulated packing for home delivery, which adds cost to every drop. EU packaging rules applied from 12 August 2026 also aim to cut empty space in deliveries. Chilled delivery formats therefore face packaging redesign costs that ambient lines largely avoid.

Table 3: Processing State, 2026 Share

Leading Share	2026 market share
Fresh / Ambient Packaged	41.7%
All Other Segments Combined Share	58.3%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the food and grocery retail market, 2026.

Why does Direct Retail Consumer Consumption lead by End-Use Application in the Food and Grocery Retail Market in 2026?

Direct Retail Consumer Consumption represents 46.3% of market revenue by end-use application in 2026.

Household orders are the core volume for digitised grocery networks, because they recur weekly and fill fixed delivery routes. E-commerce made up about 23.0% of Walmart US sales in the three months to 31 July 2026, and Walmart US e-commerce grew 24.0%. Household volume at that level spreads fulfilment fixed costs across more orders.

Convenience formats add a second household route. Sales through the 7NOW delivery service of 7-Eleven, Inc. rose 15.6% year on year to USD 550.0 million over six months. Small baskets delivered within the hour raise order frequency. They also raise cost per order, so pricing and delivery fees decide whether this demand is profitable.

Food Service & Hospitality and Commercial Food Manufacturing Plants together account for the remaining 53.7%. Large grocers serve business buyers mainly through wholesale arms, whose results follow trade customers more than households. Tesco's Booker wholesale arm recorded lower sales in the half as it lapped strong growth and tobacco sales fell. Ready-to-cook formats sold to households and caterers overlap with the meal kit market.

Table 4: End-Use Application, 2026 Share

Leading Share	2026 market share
Direct Retail Consumer Consumption	46.3%
All Other Segments Combined Share	53.7%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the food and grocery retail market, 2026.

What are the key drivers restraints and opportunities?

Revenue in this market grows when more weekly baskets move to digital ordering and when stores can fill those orders at an acceptable cost. Both conditions vary by country and by store format.

Driver

Digital grocery orders are growing faster than store sales in several large markets. Destatis reported that German internet and mail-order retail sales rose 10.0% in nominal terms in 2025, against 3.4% for food retail. Part of that rise came from a one-off restructuring at a large online seller. Statistics Canada recorded retail e-commerce sales up 15.3% in August 2026, while supermarket sales rose only 0.7%. Retailers with pick and delivery capacity already in place capture most of this shift.

Restraint

Concentrated digital systems create outage risk. Ahold Delhaize took most of its brands' websites and apps offline in Europe and the United States after a cyber incident disclosed on 12 October 2026. Its stores stayed open, but online ordering at several brands was suspended for more than a week. Sales lost in that window are hard to recover because households switch to rival apps or shop in store.

Opportunity

Retail media can raise the margin earned on digital traffic. Walmart Connect advertising in the United States grew 43.0% in fiscal Q2 2027, excluding VIZIO. Target's advertising revenue rose to USD 279.0 million from USD 217.0 million a year earlier. Grocers with large app audiences can sell targeted placements to food brands at high incremental margin. That income lasts only while shoppers keep finding relevant products at fair prices.

How do food safety, packaging and supplier rules affect grocery retail costs?

Traceability rules set future record-keeping costs for fresh supply chains. The FDA Food Traceability Rule requires firms that hold listed foods to keep key data elements for critical tracking events. Congress directed the FDA not to enforce the rule before 20 July 2028. Grocers therefore have time to align supplier data, but their distribution centres will still need lot-level records.

Packaging and trading rules also change cost and contract terms. EU rules restrict harmful PFAS chemicals in food packaging from 12 August 2026. In Canada, the Grocery Code took full effect on 1 January 2026 and sets standards for dealings between grocers and suppliers. Its office has since issued guidance on unilateral amendments to supplier agreements. Retailers that change terms mid-contract now face a formal dispute route.

What limits reliable grocery fulfilment capacity and order quality?

Delivery vehicle capacity and chilled space set the ceiling on online volume. City logistics rules are tightening that constraint. Since 1 January 2025, 14 Dutch municipalities have operated zero-emission zones for commercial vehicles, and about 15 more are due to follow. Grocers serving dense cities must fund electric fleets before they can add delivery routes, and new capacity of this kind takes years to build.

Single fulfilment sites are points of failure. A July 2026 fire significantly damaged Coupang's leased fulfilment centre in Incheon, and the company recorded USD 248.0 million of related losses in the third quarter of 2026. Grocers that spread orders across stores and several hubs can reroute volume faster after such events.

Where can grocery retailers win additional business?

Retailers can win additional business through click and collect, marketplace extensions and in-store automation. Carrefour grew French e-commerce through click and collect and home delivery while adding convenience stores. Click and collect uses store labour and stock already in place, so it adds orders at a lower cost per order than home delivery. Kaufland now runs its online marketplace in seven European countries, which extends assortment without holding stock. Picking equipment for compact in-store sites links grocers with the micro-fulfillment center automation market. Each option needs a proven cost per order before it scales.

Food and Grocery Retail Market by Country (2026 to 2036)

Table 5: Food and Grocery Retail Market Country Growth Forecast

Country	CAGR, 2026 to 2036
United States	6.3%
Netherlands	5.8%
Canada	5.4%
United Kingdom	5.0%
Germany	4.6%
South Korea	4.2%

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the food and grocery retail market, 2026.

United States

US growth combines new discount capacity with steady digital adoption. ALDI US plans to open more than 180 stores across 31 states in 2026 as part of a USD 9.0 billion investment over the five years to 2028. Its stores also serve curbside pickup and home delivery, so each opening adds online capacity as well as aisle space. Online demand is rising in parallel, with e-commerce reaching 17.1% of US retail sales between April and June 2026.

Incumbent grocers are responding with hybrid fulfilment. Kroger now combines store picking, third-party delivery and automation only where demand is dense. It expects the change to lift e-commerce operating profit by about USD 400.0 million in 2026. The shift indicates that centralised automation alone has not delivered acceptable returns at current order density.

Price conditions favour grocery over restaurant spending. The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 2.3% in 2026, below the 3.5% expected for food away from home. That spread keeps household baskets in the grocery channel and supports a 6.3% CAGR for the United States over 2026 to 2036, the fastest rate in the profiled group. Margin is the main pressure on that view, because new discount stores draw price-sensitive households from incumbent chains. Online orders also cost more to fill than store visits. Chains that keep picking inside existing stores should protect returns better than those building standalone sites.

Netherlands

Dutch grocery delivery operates under tighter city logistics rules than most markets. Since 1 January 2025, 14 Dutch municipalities have operated zero-emission zones for commercial vehicles. About 15 more are due to follow. The national government agreed a fine-free period of at least six months and started a law change to give emission class 6 vans one more year. Grocers serving city centres must still fund the switch to electric vans, which raises the fixed cost of each delivery route.

Store turnover is flat while online grows slowly. CBS reported a 1.0% year-on-year drop in supermarket turnover for September 2026. Online turnover of food and drugstore retailers rose 2.9% in the same month, the lowest online growth of any retail branch. That pattern points to an online channel that has already served its early adopters. In the last quarter of 2025, supermarket turnover had grown 4.8% while volume rose only 1.6%. Price has therefore contributed more than volume to recent supermarket revenue.

Dense cities and short delivery routes support a 5.8% CAGR for the Netherlands in 2026 to 2036. Short routes allow more drops per vehicle, which offsets part of the cost of electric fleets. Slow online growth from a mature base means that further gains depend on larger baskets and higher order frequency among existing users. Retailers that pair electric fleets with resilient ordering systems should hold their online share as city rules tighten.

Canada

Canadian shoppers are moving spend online faster than supermarket sales are rising. Statistics Canada reported retail e-commerce sales of CAD 5.6 billion in August 2026, up 15.3% on a year earlier. Supermarkets and other grocery retailers sold CAD 9.5 billion in the same month, a rise of only 0.7%. Digital channels are capturing a growing part of household spending. Grocers with established pickup and delivery networks capture that shift first.

Grocery inflation is easing but prices remain high. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 1.7% in the year to September 2026, the smallest increase since May 2024. Households continue to trade toward discount formats. Loblaw opened seven Hard Discount stores in its second quarter, and its e-commerce sales grew 19.3% while food retail same-store sales rose 1.6%. Discount and online channels are therefore growing together at the expense of conventional full-price stores.

Supplier rules now shape how retailers fund this growth. The Office of the Grocery Sector Code of Conduct issued guidance in May 2026 on click-to-accept practices in supplier agreements. Retailers that change terms online must meet those expectations. Canada's 5.4% CAGR for 2026 to 2036 rests on discount expansion and steady online ordering. Store pickup points allow chains to serve smaller towns at lower cost than home delivery, which widens the reachable market without new delivery fleets.

United Kingdom

British grocery retail has a mature online channel led by store-based operators. Tesco's UK online sales grew 8.4% in the first half of its 2026/27 year, and its UK online market share reached 36.7%. A store-based leader at that scale sets the service standard on slots and delivery fees for the wider market.

The wider retail picture is mixed. The ONS reported that online sales made up 28.8% of all British retail sales in September 2026. Supermarket sales volumes fell that month after rises in July and August. Online spending values were still 6.8% higher than a year earlier. Retailers linked part of the monthly weakness to warm weather and lower clothing sales. Growth in online values despite weaker store volumes indicates that the channel continues to gain share in soft months. Online penetration near three tenths of retail limits the pace of further channel shift.

Packaging costs are rising through regulation. Under extended producer responsibility, large producers pay waste disposal fees that vary with the recyclability of each material from 2026 data onwards. Red-rated packaging pays a higher fee than green-rated packaging. Own-brand ranges and pack redesign therefore have a direct margin effect. A high existing online base holds the United Kingdom to a 5.0% CAGR across 2026 to 2036. Growth will come from faster delivery and larger online baskets. Chains with dense store networks retain the lowest cost per order.

Germany

German food retail grows mainly through price, with small volume gains. Destatis reported that food retail turnover rose 1.1% in real terms in 2025 and 3.4% in nominal terms. Real turnover across all German retail in 2025 was still 0.1% below its 2021 peak. Discount chains hold dense store networks in most German towns, and ALDI Nord operates more than 5,500 stores across eight countries.

Online grocery is growing from a small base. The HDE Online-Monitor 2026 reported that online sales of fast-moving consumer goods rose 10.4% in 2025. That was more than 2.5 times the average online growth rate across categories. Even so, the online share of FMCG sales reached only 5.0%, up from 4.6% a year earlier. Stores therefore still handle most grocery volume in Germany, and online remains an incremental channel.

Large discounters are putting their capital into stores. The Schwarz Group expanded its Lidl and Kaufland network by 300 stores to 14,500 in its 2025 financial year, while online sales held at EUR 1.7 billion. The group plans investment of more than EUR 10.0 billion in its 2026 financial year. With store-first discounting setting the national price level, German revenue in this scope grows at a 4.6% CAGR between 2026 and 2036. Full-range grocers must make delivery pay at those price points. Click and collect from existing stores is the lower-cost route.

South Korea

South Korean grocery buying is already highly digital. The Ministry of Data and Statistics reported mobile shopping transactions of KRW 18.9 trillion in August 2026, up 5.8% on a year earlier. That equalled about 78.1% of all online shopping value in the month. Further growth must come from order frequency more than from new users, which shifts competition toward retention.

Leading platforms show that spend per customer now drives growth. Coupang's Product Commerce revenue reached USD 8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 8.0% at constant currency. Active customers grew only 2.0% to 25.2 million. Net revenue per active customer rose to USD 332.0 from USD 323.0, so spend per customer accounted for most of the growth. Growth that depends on existing customers favours platforms with high order frequency and broad assortment.

Rules on large stores shape the offline side. Under the Distribution Industry Development Act, local governments can restrict superstore trading between midnight and 10 a.m. and can order two compulsory closing days each month. Costco operates 20 warehouses in Korea alongside a Korean e-commerce site. South Korea has the slowest outlook in the profiled group at a 4.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2036. Trading limits and a mature online base cap new demand. Retailers that raise repeat orders from existing app users will gain more than those chasing new customers.

Who are the notable companies in the Food and Grocery Retail Market?

Four retailers represent the main business models in this market: Walmart, Tesco, Ahold Delhaize and the Schwarz Group. Walmart and Tesco run large store networks that fill online orders from existing aisles. Walmart grew store-fulfilled delivery by 40.0% in the quarter to July 2026 and ran more than 11,000 rollbacks during its second fiscal quarter. Tesco extended its Whoosh rapid delivery service to more than 75.0% of UK households and began selling groceries on Uber Eats and Deliveroo. Ahold Delhaize runs regional supermarket brands in the United States and Europe with a strong own-brand range. Its US online sales grew 14.5% at constant exchange rates in the second quarter. The Schwarz Group grows mainly through Lidl and Kaufland store openings.

Kroger and Costco take different routes to the same household. Kroger has moved to a hybrid model of store picking, third-party delivery and selective automation, with Instacart as its primary delivery fulfilment provider. Costco sells through 939 warehouses and grew digitally enabled comparable sales by 20.9% in its 2026 fiscal year. Target uses its stores for almost all fulfilment and sells advertising through its Roundel business.

Discount and convenience formats compete for the same weekly budget. ALDI US plans more than 180 new stores in 2026 and is adding a chilled centre for perishable foods at its Haines City distribution centre. Carrefour is adding convenience stores in France and grew French e-commerce through click and collect and home delivery. Seven & i serves households through more than 20,000 stores and its 7NOW delivery service. Procurement comparisons across these firms turn on price index, delivery coverage and fresh range depth.

Key Developments in the Food and Grocery Retail Market

• On 12 January 2026, ALDI US announced plans to open more than 180 stores across 31 states during 2026, including its first store in Maine.
• In the first half of 2026, Carrefour completed the sale of Carrefour Romania to sharpen its geographic focus.
• In August 2026, Tesco launched its groceries on Uber Eats and followed with Deliveroo in September 2026.

Key Players in the Food and Grocery Retail Market

• Walmart Inc.
• The Kroger Co.
• Costco Wholesale Corporation
• Schwarz Group (Lidl and Kaufland)
• ALDI Einkauf SE & Co. oHG (ALDI Nord)
• ALDI US
• Carrefour S.A.
• Tesco PLC
• Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.
• Target Corporation
• Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd.

Food and Grocery Retail Market Report Scope

Table 6: Food and Grocery Retail Market Report Scope

Coverage field	Report scope
Market definition	Revenue from digitised and automated grocery retail operations, including store-integrated and central order fulfilment, click-and-collect, home and rapid delivery, and specialty organic grocery formats. Conventional in-aisle food sales, unorganised wet markets, fuel and restaurant meal sales are excluded.
Product Type / Grade	Standard Commercial Grade; Organic & Clean-Label Variant; Premium Specialty Formulation
Processing State	Fresh / Ambient Packaged; Frozen & Chilled; Dehydrated & Dry Packaged
End-Use Application	Direct Retail Consumer Consumption; Food Service & Hospitality; Commercial Food Manufacturing Plants
Fulfilment routes analysed	Store pickup and click-and-collect; scheduled home delivery; rapid delivery; third-party delivery apps
Regions covered	North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, East Asia, South Asia and Pacific, Middle East and Africa
Profiled markets	United States, Netherlands, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea
Companies covered	Walmart Inc.; The Kroger Co.; Costco Wholesale Corporation; Schwarz Group (Lidl and Kaufland); ALDI Einkauf SE & Co. oHG (ALDI Nord); ALDI US; Carrefour S.A.; Tesco PLC; Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.; Target Corporation; Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd.
Quantitative Units	USD billion

Source: Future Market Insights analysis of the food and grocery retail market, 2026.

Food and Grocery Retail Market Research Methodology

The food and grocery retail assessment draws on national retail and price statistics, e-commerce surveys, regulatory notices and retailer disclosures. FMI measures annual revenue from digitised grocery fulfilment, click-and-collect, home delivery and specialty grocery formats. Segment values are classified by product type or grade, processing state and end-use application. Country forecasts reflect local online adoption, store formats, prices and delivery rules over the same 2026 to 2036 period. Online sales, store sales and price indices are reviewed as separate measures.

Food and Grocery Retail Market by Segments

Food and Grocery Retail Market segmented by Product Type / Grade:

• Standard Commercial Grade
• Organic & Clean-Label Variant
• Premium Specialty Formulation

Food and Grocery Retail Market segmented by Processing State:

• Fresh / Ambient Packaged
• Frozen & Chilled
• Dehydrated & Dry Packaged

Food and Grocery Retail Market segmented by End-Use Application:

• Direct Retail Consumer Consumption
• Food Service & Hospitality
• Commercial Food Manufacturing Plants

Food and Grocery Retail Market by Region

• North America
  • United States
  • Canada
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Argentina
• Western Europe
  • Germany
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Spain
• Eastern Europe
  • Poland
  • Czech Republic
• East Asia
  • South Korea
  • Japan
  • China
• South Asia and Pacific
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • India
• Middle East and Africa
  • GCC Countries
  • South Africa

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