Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market : Global Industry Analysis and Opportunity Assessment, 2036

How big is Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market in 2026?

USD 2.9 billion in 2026 and USD 14.5 billion by 2036 at a 17.5% CAGR.

Demand for autonomous mining haulage (surface) is expected to push industry value from USD 2.9 billion in 2026 to USD 14.5 billion by 2036 at a 17.5% CAGR, driven by production-scale fleet conversions. Caterpillar reported in April 2025 that its 65-tonne Cat 775 was engineered to enable future autonomous capability and was planned for introduction during 2026. The product development extends autonomy planning into quarry-class haulage, where smaller fleets and shorter shifts change the commercial case. The surface mining equipment market therefore depends on integrated route control and site support rather than isolated vehicle automation.

Country programs reflect different operating priorities across surface mines and quarries that are converting active production routes. China is pairing electric fleets with battery swapping and communications control, whereas United States quarry programs rely more heavily on dealer-backed conversions and formal safety plans. Mine engineering teams compare road geometry with radio coverage before approving each route for daily production. At a 2026 market value of USD 2.9 billion, commercial returns depend on funding control rooms and commissioning work alongside the trucks. The smart mining market faces the same integration test across connected production assets and operating teams. Capital returns weaken if autonomy-ready vehicles enter service without the operating support required for reliable production.

Summary of the Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market

Market Signal	Commercial Impact
Demand and Growth Drivers	Autonomous haulage creates value after a mine converts an entire production loop into a controlled operating system with clear route responsibility. Repeated speed and spacing rules reduce avoidable queue variation around shovels and crushers throughout continuous production across several operating shifts at large mines. Payload controls protect braking systems and tires from wear caused by recurring overloads across long haul cycles and changing road grades under daily production. Fleet conversions usually advance by route or truck group because brownfield mines must preserve output throughout commissioning and acceptance testing. Commercial value depends on named responsibility for route maps and incident response after autonomous vehicles enter regular production service.
Product and Segment View	Truck platforms carry much of the early spending because every autonomous unit needs machine-side control hardware that can execute fleet commands safely. Autonomous haul trucks are projected to account for 58.0% of equipment demand in 2026, underpinned by their direct role in production movement. Iron ore and bulk materials are estimated to represent 38.0% of commodity demand in 2026, attributable to stable high-volume haul routes. Surface metal mines are forecast to hold 56.0% of end-use demand in 2026, supported by long asset lives and dedicated control rooms. Software and service value increases as larger fleets need regular map updates and remote operating support throughout each production cycle.
Geography and Growth Outlook	Country growth reflects mine scale and the local engineering support available for production-route approval under each safety and operating framework. China is projected to record 20.5% CAGR from 2026 to 2036, driven by fleet-scale coal projects and domestic system integration. Latin America is forecast to advance at 20.0% CAGR through 2036, supported by long copper routes and brownfield fleet renewal. The United States is estimated to grow at 17.0% CAGR over the forecast period, underpinned by formal mine-safety duties and dealer support. Japan is predicted to post 16.0% CAGR by 2036, aided by export-led engineering programs and global service capability. Russia is anticipated to record 15.0% CAGR between 2026 and 2036, shaped by high-payload applications and remote operating conditions.
Competitive Landscape	Competition separates integrated truck systems from machine-independent control platforms that preserve mixed fleets but require deeper interface testing and commissioning across active production roads. Komatsu and Caterpillar connect haul-truck controls with fleet assignment tools and regional service networks across production-scale surface mining programs. Hitachi Construction Machinery and Liebherr pair truck engineering with autonomous platforms that must remain supported through future powertrain changes. Hexagon and Epiroc preserve mixed-fleet options through control layers that are not tied to one truck manufacturer or model family. Fortescue and Rio Tinto influence technical requirements through large operating fleets and joint development programs with equipment manufacturers.
Analyst Perspective	A mine gains durable value after autonomy becomes part of daily production management rather than a separate technology project with uncertain ownership. Traffic rules and radio coverage determine whether a pilot route can expand without disrupting staffed equipment movements across an active pit. Mixed-fleet conversions preserve equipment choice but require deeper testing across steering interfaces and braking controls before production acceptance. Service contracts should assign route-map changes and incident response to named teams throughout the operating term and later system upgrades. - Nikhil Kaitwade , Principal Analyst at Future Market Insights

Source: FMI's proprietary forecasting model and primary research

How is the autonomous mining haulage (surface) market segmented?

The autonomous mining haulage (surface) industry is segmented by equipment, commodity, component, end use, sales channel, and region.

Equipment analysis covers autonomous haul trucks and supporting machines that share production roads across active pits. Commodity analysis separates iron ore and bulk materials from copper and coal alongside gold and other mined materials. Component coverage compares vehicle hardware and retrofit kits with autonomy software plus operating services required throughout production. End-use analysis covers surface metal mines and coal mines alongside quarries and oil sands across different route conditions. Sales-channel analysis compares direct OEM purchases with retrofit programs and service contracts alongside pilot programs. The structure connects machine choice with the mobile mining equipment category and the service model used at each operating site throughout commissioning and regular production.

What supports demand for autonomous haul trucks within the equipment category?

Haul trucks control repeated material movement between loading points and fixed destinations across surface mining operations. Komatsu reported in August 2025 that Smart Quarry Autonomous would integrate Pronto technology into quarry-sized trucks for North American operations. The OEM-agnostic system supports new Komatsu vehicles and retrofit installations through the company's dealer network. The development shows that truck autonomy is moving beyond ultra-class fleets into smaller production settings with established service channels.

• Autonomous haul trucks are projected to hold 58.0% share in 2026, underpinned by their direct role in repeated production movement. Each truck carries steering controls and braking interfaces alongside perception hardware and communication systems needed for road-ready operation. The share reflects capital spending on complete machines rather than software licenses that cannot move material without vehicle-side control.
• Mine engineering teams increasingly favor programs that connect dispatch data with loading and dumping controls. The construction equipment fleet management software category provides a useful comparison for work-order visibility across large fleets. Autonomous haulage contracts carry greater safety responsibility because route changes can alter braking and steering behavior across active production roads.

How does iron ore and bulk material movement shape demand within the commodity category?

Iron ore and copper operations use long mine lives and fixed crusher destinations that suit repeatable autonomous routes. Epiroc reported in October 2025 that all 78 haul trucks at Roy Hill had been converted from manual to fully driverless operation through LinkOA. The company stated that the system had moved more than 250 million tonnes autonomously. The milestone shows how producers can preserve different truck models under one control layer without separating the production plan.

• Iron ore and bulk materials are estimated to represent 38.0% share in 2026, attributable to high tonnage and stable haul profiles. Large operations can spread control-room costs across many truck cycles and several production years at one mining complex. The segment share depends on continuity because every route interruption affects loading schedules and downstream crushing output.
• Copper and iron ore producers often convert fleets around active pits that cannot stop for a complete replacement. The machine condition monitoring category explains why machine-health data remains part of autonomy approval across active fleets. A route cannot protect output if maintenance teams receive late warnings about braking faults or communication failures.

How are surface metal mines positioned within the end-use category?

Surface metal mines can justify dedicated control rooms because large fleets operate for long periods under repeatable production plans. Caterpillar reported in March 2026 that Fortescue renewed MineStar Command coverage across three Western Australian operations. The renewed agreement extends a commercial deployment that began during 2012 at the Solomon operation and now supports multiple mine sites. Mine owners therefore evaluate autonomy as an operating system that must remain supported across truck replacement cycles and changing production plans.

• Surface metal mines are forecast to account for 56.0% share in 2026, supported by long asset lives and large material volumes. Control infrastructure can serve several fleet groups across the same mining complex throughout each production plan. The share reflects an operating setting where route consistency and control-room investment remain useful long enough to recover commissioning costs.
• Coal mines and quarries use smaller fleets with route changes that create different acceptance needs across active production areas. The mining drill category illustrates how supporting machines affect road access throughout each production shift. Haulage performance weakens if drill movements or road maintenance work are not governed by the same traffic plan.

What are the drivers, restraints, and opportunities in the autonomous mining haulage (surface) market?

Production consistency supports route conversion across repeated mine cycles; site acceptance limits commissioning pace on active production roads; mixed-fleet services widen brownfield options for operations that cannot replace every truck at once.

• Driver: Production consistency supports autonomous haulage on repeated routes that carry material through every production shift. Mines gain value after approved speed and spacing rules reduce avoidable queues without weakening loading or dumping output.
• Restraint: Road design and communication coverage limit deployment across active pits that must maintain daily production. Each route needs evidence that the complete control chain remains available under local weather and traffic conditions.
• Opportunity: Mixed-fleet control services create a commercial opening for mines that cannot replace every truck through one manufacturer. Integration contracts can extend autonomy across existing assets with defined responsibility for software changes and incident response.

Production consistency is a factor supporting growth across surface fleets that run repeated routes throughout each operating shift. Caterpillar announced in May 2026 that Carmeuse would deploy MineStar Command for hauling across its Cat 777 fleet at the Drummond Island quarry. The agreement pairs autonomous trucks with loader and staffed-equipment controls under one operating plan for daily quarry production. The underground mining automation category faces similar control needs, but surface haulage places greater weight on long road networks and open-pit traffic.

Site acceptance is a factor limiting growth across brownfield mines that must protect ongoing production during commissioning. The Mine Safety and Health Administration's surface mobile equipment rule took effect in January 2024. Enforcement began in July 2024 after covered operations received a six-month implementation period for written safety programs. Mine operators must document mobile-equipment hazards and interaction controls across every affected production area before route approval. Autonomous projects therefore need traffic rules and incident procedures that protect output while meeting local safety duties.

Mixed-fleet support represents an emerging opportunity for mines that want to retain existing truck assets during staged conversions. Codelco reported in December 2025 that its five-year memorandum with Hexagon established pilot programs and technology testing across company operations. The agreement includes autonomous truck systems and fleet-management tools for operating sites in Chile. The smart mining technologies category benefits from the same need for interoperable control across mixed assets. Commercial value rises after one service structure covers integration testing and later software changes throughout the operating contract.

Which country CAGRs are profiled in the autonomous mining haulage (surface) market?

Country	CAGR
China	20.5%
Latin America	20.0%
United States	17.0%
Japan	16.0%
Russia	15.0%

Source: FMI's proprietary forecasting model and primary research

How do country-level CAGRs compare in the autonomous mining haulage (surface) market?

Country growth follows the scale of surface mines and the engineering support available for route acceptance under local operating rules. China is developing electric autonomous fleets that combine battery logistics with mine-wide communications across large coal operations. Latin American copper mines must convert active fleets without interrupting daily output across long open-pit routes. United States projects operate within formal mobile-equipment safety programs, and Japanese manufacturers contribute truck engineering plus remote support to export markets. Russian projects place greater weight on high payloads and maintainable systems across remote surface mining locations. Each country therefore presents a different commercial test for service coverage and production governance across active mines.

• China is converting large open-pit coal routes into electric autonomous operating systems that must remain dependable during severe winter conditions. Autonomous haulage demand in China is forecast to expand at 20.5% CAGR from 2026 to 2036, driven by fleet-scale programs and domestic integration. Official material from Huawei in June 2025 documented 100 autonomous electric trucks with 568 kWh batteries and automated swapping at Yimin Mine. The deployment connects truck control with 5G-Advanced communications across a working coal operation and its charging infrastructure. Mine owners must evaluate battery logistics and network performance under extreme cold alongside routine route changes. Contracts therefore favor service teams that can protect communications uptime and restore failed equipment without interrupting coal movement.
• Latin American copper operations combine long open-pit routes with brownfield renewal programs that cannot interrupt daily production across active pits. The regional market is projected to record 20.0% CAGR through 2036, supported by large copper fleets and staged route conversions. Codelco's March 2025 annual report identified Gabriela Mistral as its first division to operate with 100% autonomous haul trucks. The operating record confirms that regional adoption can move beyond isolated pilot fleets into routine copper production. The Latin America mining equipment category therefore needs commissioning teams that can convert one route while adjacent production continues. Contract selection depends on local field support and clear responsibility for software changes across long mine lives.
• United States adoption combines ultra-class gold mines with quarry programs that depend on regional dealer support and formal safety plans. Demand in the United States is estimated to advance at 17.0% CAGR over the forecast period, underpinned by established safety duties and service coverage. Caterpillar reported in July 2025 that autonomous Cat 777 trucks had hauled one million tons at Bull Run Quarry in Virginia. The milestone confirms that a United States quarry program can move beyond commissioning into routine material production under regular site conditions. Mine managers still need route-specific traffic rules that satisfy Mine Safety and Health Administration requirements. Commercial awards therefore depend on documented governance and field teams that can resolve software or communication failures without reducing daily output.
• Japan has limited domestic surface mining scale but retains a material role through truck engineering and remote operating support for export markets. Japan is forecast to post 16.0% CAGR by 2036, attributable to manufacturer investment and global service programs. Komatsu reported in April 2026 that FrontRunner had reached 1,000 commissioned ultra-class autonomous haul trucks across global surface mines. The milestone unit carried a 290-metric-ton payload and demonstrated the export scale available to a Japanese equipment manufacturer. Overseas operating records help engineering teams test route control across different road and climate conditions. Japan's commercial value therefore comes from product design and service revenue rather than large domestic mining fleets.
• Russia continues to operate large surface mines where payload and haul distance support autonomous truck development across remote industrial locations. Adoption in Russia is predicted to expand at 15.0% CAGR during the forecast period, aided by local engineering partnerships and high-payload applications. BELAZ stated in September 2025 that a Belarusian-Russian venture had started an unmanned hydrogen truck project with a 220-ton payload target. The planned platform links alternative power systems with autonomous control for heavy surface routes and remote production areas. Remote mines need maintainable control hardware and dependable field support across long service distances and severe operating conditions. Technology selection therefore depends on component access and stable communications rather than vehicle capability presented without local operating evidence.

Who are the notable companies in the autonomous mining haulage (surface) market?

Komatsu, Caterpillar, Hitachi Construction Machinery, Liebherr, Hexagon, Epiroc, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto are notable companies shaping this market.

Competition centers on responsibility for truck control and fleet assignment throughout regular surface-mine production across several operating shifts. Integrated OEM systems reduce interface risk, but they can narrow machine choice during later fleet purchases and replacement cycles. Machine-independent platforms preserve mixed fleets and require deeper testing across steering plus braking interfaces before site acceptance. Fortescue and Rio Tinto influence technical specifications through large deployment programs and joint development work with equipment manufacturers. The equipment management software category provides a useful comparison for asset visibility across large fleets. Autonomous haulage adds safety-critical vehicle control that requires stricter governance for route maps and software changes.

• Komatsu and Caterpillar compete through integrated truck and command platforms with production histories across several surface mining operations. Direct responsibility for machine controls and regional service networks supports their commercial position during commissioning. Mine owners still compare supported truck models with the governance used for route-map changes throughout each operating contract.
• Hitachi Construction Machinery and Liebherr combine haul-truck engineering with autonomy platforms and operating data from active mine sites. Their commercial position depends on turning development programs into repeatable production evidence across several commodities. Each company must show that fleet control remains supported through future powertrain changes and later truck replacements.
• Hexagon and Epiroc compete through machine-independent control systems that support mixed fleets across active surface mining operations. Fortescue shapes technical requirements through joint programs with Caterpillar and Liebherr. Rio Tinto applies autonomous haulage at Gudai-Darri, reinforcing demand for open interfaces and clear responsibility for production performance.

Competitive Benchmarking: Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market

Company	Truck Platform	Mixed-Fleet Control	Production Deployment	Geographic Reach
Komatsu	High	High	High	Global
Caterpillar	High	High	High	Global
Hitachi Construction Machinery	High	High	Medium	Global
Liebherr	High	Medium	Medium	Global
Hexagon	Low	High	Medium	Global
Epiroc	Low	High	High	Global
Fortescue	Medium	High	High	Australia
Rio Tinto	Medium	High	High	Australia

Scoring basis: High indicates direct market capability supported by production evidence from active surface mining operations. Medium identifies partner-supported capability or a developing platform with narrower production evidence across the defined market. Low marks companies with limited responsibility for truck manufacturing or autonomous fleet control within the assessed market.

Source: Future Market Insights competitive analysis, 2026, with ratings based on verified portfolio relevance and deployment evidence.

Key Developments in the Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market

• May 2025: Komatsu reported autonomous operation of a power-agnostic electric-drive truck while connected to a dynamic trolley line at a mine site. The test combined automated route control with external power supply during regular truck movement across an operating haul road. The result shows that future mine plans may need one control system to manage powertrain changes and autonomous traffic across the same production route.
• April 2025: Liebherr displayed the autonomous battery-electric T 264 at Bauma through the Autonomous Haulage Solution developed with Fortescue for surface mining operations. The 240-ton class truck combined battery-electric propulsion with automated route control on a mine-haulage platform. The demonstration showed that mine planning must coordinate vehicle automation with charging availability and traffic flow across a complete commercial production route.
• March 2026: Hitachi Construction Machinery presented LANDCROS Autonomous Haulage Solution for mining at CONEXPO 2026 as a production-focused platform for surface operations. The development added another truck-manufacturer option for mines evaluating autonomous fleets across active production settings and different commodities. Commercial acceptance depends on operating evidence that covers route control and mixed traffic alongside local service throughout each deployment cycle.
• May 2025: Komatsu and Ouster announced a multimillion-dollar lidar supply agreement covering Komatsu autonomous mining equipment across several machine programs. The agreement adds 3D digital sensors to autonomous haulage and other applications across Komatsu's equipment portfolio. The development gives mining companies a clearer component-support path and raises the importance of sensor availability throughout commissioning and later replacement cycles across operating fleets.

Key Players in the Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market

Integrated Haul-Truck and Autonomous System Manufacturers

• Komatsu
• Caterpillar
• Hitachi Construction Machinery
• Liebherr

Machine-Independent Automation and Fleet-Control Providers

• Hexagon
• Epiroc

Mine Operators Co-Developing Autonomous Haulage

• Fortescue
• Rio Tinto

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market - Report Scope

Coverage field	Report scope
Market breakdown	Equipment, commodity, component, end use, sales channel, and region.
Market Definition	The market covers driverless haulage systems for surface mining production routes, including truck platforms, retrofit controls, fleet software, and related operating services.
Regions Covered	North America, Latin America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Oceania, and Middle East and Africa.
Countries Covered	China, Chile, Peru, Brazil, United States, Japan, Russia, Australia, and other countries within the 8+ country regional model.
Key Companies Profiled	Komatsu, Caterpillar, Hitachi Construction Machinery, Liebherr, Hexagon, Epiroc, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto.
Forecast Period	2026 to 2036.
Approach	Hybrid bottom-up and top-down market sizing supported by primary interviews and official desk research.

Source: Future Market Insights analysis supported by proprietary forecasting models and primary research

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market - Research Methodology

Method	Approach
Primary Research	FMI analysts gathered input from manufacturers, service providers, technology developers, distributors, end users, procurement teams, and subject-matter experts. Interviews examined purchasing decisions, product or service evaluation, adoption barriers, approval requirements, pricing considerations, and expectations for technical or commercial support. Respondents were also asked what evidence is required before a trial, pilot, or initial order develops into regular purchasing.
Desk Research	Desk research covered government statistics, regulatory publications, trade data, industry associations, technical literature, standards, company filings, product information, and official corporate announcements. Sources were reviewed for relevance, publication date, geographic coverage, and consistency with the defined market scope. Claims relating to performance, applications, approvals, capacity, investment, and commercial activity were retained only when supported by credible public evidence.
Market Sizing and Forecasting	The market model combined the baseline value with historical performance, segment structure, pricing and volume indicators, adoption levels, company participation, and country-level demand conditions. Forecast assumptions considered economic activity, investment trends, regulatory developments, technology adoption, purchasing cycles, supply availability, and barriers to wider market use. Segment and regional estimates were reconciled before the final market total was calculated.
Data Validation	Estimates were checked against multiple independent indicators, including public data, company activity, trade patterns, industry developments, and findings from primary interviews. Validation also tested whether products, services, applications, and company revenues fell within the defined market boundaries. Adjacent categories, unsupported claims, overlapping revenues, and activities without direct market relevance were excluded to reduce double counting and maintain consistency across segments and countries.

Source: Future Market Insights analysis based on proprietary forecasting models and primary research

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market by Segments

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market segmented by Equipment:

• Autonomous Haul Trucks
• Drill Automation
• Dozer and Water Truck Autonomy
• Light Vehicle Autonomy

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market segmented by Commodity:

• Iron Ore and Bulk Materials
• Copper
• Coal
• Gold and Other Commodities

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market segmented by Component:

• Vehicles and Retrofit Kits
• Autonomy Software and Fleet Management Systems
• Services

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market segmented by End Use:

• Surface Metal Mines
• Coal Mines
• Quarries and Aggregates
• Oil Sands

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market segmented by Sales Channel:

• Direct OEM Purchases
• Retrofit Programs
• Service Contracts
• Pilot Programs

Autonomous Mining Haulage (Surface) Market by Region:

• North America
  • United States
  • Canada
• Europe
  • Germany
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
• Asia Pacific
  • India
  • China
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Australia
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Mexico
  • Chile
• Middle East & Africa
  • UAE
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa

Research Sources and Bibliography

• Caterpillar. (2026, March 23). Caterpillar and Fortescue extend agreement for Cat MineStar Command for hauling in Western Australia sites. Caterpillar.
• Caterpillar. (2026, May 4). Carmeuse Selects Caterpillar’s Autonomous Hauling Solution to Deploy at Drummond Island Operation. Caterpillar.
• Caterpillar. (2025, April 6). New Cat® 775 off-highway truck previews the next generation design and the future of autonomy. Caterpillar.
• Caterpillar. (2025, July 14). Caterpillar and Luck Stone celebrate one million tons hauled autonomously at Bull Run Quarry. Caterpillar.
• Codelco. (2025, March 29). Annual Report 2024. Codelco.
• Codelco. (2025, December 17). Codelco and Hexagon sign agreement to develop and implement advanced technological solutions in mining. Codelco.
• Epiroc. (2025, October 24). Epiroc and Hancock Iron Ore reach milestone as Roy Hill becomes world's largest fully agnostic autonomous mine. Epiroc.
• Hitachi Construction Machinery Americas. (2026, March 2). Hitachi Construction Machinery to showcase autonomous haulage for mining at CONEXPO 2026. Hitachi Construction Machinery.
• Huawei. (2025, June). North China's Yimin Mine deploys world's first fleet of 100 5G-A connected, self-driving electric trucks. Huawei.
• Komatsu. (2026, April 21). Komatsu becomes first OEM to commission 1,000 ultra-class autonomous haul trucks. Komatsu.
• Komatsu. (2025, May 22). Komatsu achieves autonomous trolley milestone with battery-ready electric-drive truck. Komatsu.
• Komatsu. (2025, August 7). Komatsu North America and Pronto launch autonomy solution for quarry-size trucks. Komatsu.
• Ouster. (2025, May 8). Ouster to supply lidar sensors for Komatsu's suite of autonomous offerings. Ouster.
• Rio Tinto. (n.d.). Gudai-Darri. Rio Tinto.
• Liebherr. (2025, April 6). Liebherr shares its exciting electrification solutions for mining equipment at Bauma 2025. Liebherr.
• Mine Safety and Health Administration. (2024, July 15). Frequently asked questions: Safety program for surface mobile equipment. USA Department of Labor.
• BELAZ. (2025, September 30). The project for unmanned and hydrogen-powered dump trucks has been launched. BELAZ.

The bibliography provides reader references from primary government sources, standards bodies, official trade bodies, and company publications.

This Report Answers

• What market value is estimated for 2026 and 2036?
• What CAGR is projected from 2026 to 2036?
• Which equipment, commodity, and end-use segments account for the stated 2026 shares?
• Which operating conditions support autonomous haulage across surface mines?
• How do country CAGRs compare across China, Latin America, the United States, Japan, and Russia?
• Which companies compete through truck platforms or machine-independent control systems?
• How do road design and communication coverage affect site acceptance?
• What commercial models support mixed-fleet conversions and long-term system service?
• What evidence should mine owners review before expanding a pilot route into production?