The steadily growing North American carbon steel industry is expected due to increasing the demand across construction, automotive, and manufacturing verticals. The total market value of the industry is expected to be USD 85.9 billion by 2025, with increasing investments in infrastructure & industrial applications. Growth will continue to witness strong momentum in the upcoming decade with a CAGR of 4.9%. If this trend continues, it is estimated that the industry's value will reach USD 133.1 billion by 2035.
This growth can be attributed to advancements in the method of steel production, sustainability targets, and changes in government policies. Regional demand and major improvements in the supply chain will also stabilize and make profitable the growth.
As more industries seek high strength, durability, and cost-effective materials, carbon steel will continue to play an important role in North America’s economy. It is the commitment to continuous innovation along with strategic investment that will ensure a strong future for the industry, which will be able to cater to diverse industrial needs and offer sustainable long-term mining solutions.
Market Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Industry Size (2025E) | USD 85.9 billion |
| Industry Value (2035F) | USD 133.1 billion |
| CAGR (2025 to 2035) | 4.9% |
Between 2025 and 2035, the carbon steel market is estimated to grow steadily across all carbon content categories. Due to ductility and manufacturing ease, low carbon steel will dominate applications in general engineering, automotive, and construction. Medium carbon steel which balances strength with ductility will also remain critical for many industrial and automotive components. As metallurgical techniques improve at making high carbon steel easier to work with and more resistant to wear, it will be used more in specialized areas like cutting tools, farm equipment, and high-strength wires.
Long and flat product types will be critical in shaping the demand. Heavy machinery manufacture, construction, packaging, etc., will continue to use flat products such as hot-rolled (HR) coils, cold-rolled (CR) sheets, electrical sheets, and tin plates. Growing infrastructure investments and urbanization will drive the demand for more pipes, plates, and HR sheets.
Long items like rods, bars, and other steel structural elements will be needed in skyscrapers, railroad networks, and reinforced structures. Increasing rail and transportation constructions will also increase demand for high-performance railway materials.
Carbon steel will mostly be consumed by the construction industry due to private sector investments as well as infrastructure projects from governments. Railways and shipbuilding will use long-lasting, corrosion-stoppered steel, while the auto industry will undoubtedly use high-strength carbon steel for protection and lightweight designs.
There is definitely a minimalist lifestyle we will (and must) adopt as a step to a better environment, but there is also constant improvement to be made on carbon steel processing and treatments that will support heavy machinery, consumer appliances, and cutting tools, as well as oil and gas, which will always require steel pipes and structural elements.
The carbon steel landscape in North America underwent a dramatic transformation between 2020 and 2024. Technological advancements in electric arc furnace (EAF) technology have attracted manufacturers due to increased efficiency and reduced pollution. with its higher production efficiency and lower environmental pollution.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which passed in 2020, redefined how trade is conducted by changing the focus of regional cooperation and updating labor and digital trade rules. Profits of major steelmakers have been affected by other sector challenges, including lower steel prices and falling demand from key sectors like automobile and equipment manufacturing.
The integration of 5G technology in industrial automation, smart manufacturing, and logistics will be crucial for efficiency and connectivity in the carbon steel industry from 2025 to 2035. To comply with increasingly strict environmental standards, companies are putting money into sustainable methods, including green steel production and credentials like responsible steel.
Legislative moves to bolster trade enforcement, particularly in response to unfair practices from countries like China, could influence industry trends. Steel companies are also looking at an uptick in manufacturing activity and stronger demand pressure from infrastructure activity, which augurs well for the secular prospects of the sector over the next decade.
North America Carbon Steel Industry - Key Drivers & Restraints
| Key Drivers | Key Restraints |
|---|---|
| Growing demand from construction and automotive sectors | Fluctuating raw material costs |
| Advancements in electric arc furnace (EAF) technology | Stringent environmental regulations |
| Shift toward sustainable and green steel production | Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks |
| Government infrastructure investments | Competition from alternative materials like aluminum and composites |
| Rising adoption of high-strength and lightweight steel | Volatility in global trade policies |
| Increasing automation and digitalization in steel manufacturing | High initial investment costs for new technologies |
| Expanding applications in renewable energy and industrial sectors | Labor shortages and workforce challenges |
Impact Assessment of Key Drivers
| Driver | Impact |
|---|---|
| Growing demand from construction and automotive sectors | High |
| Advancements in electric arc furnace (EAF) technology | Medium |
| Shift toward sustainable and green steel production | High |
| Government infrastructure investments | High |
| Rising adoption of high-strength and lightweight steel | Medium |
| Increasing automation and digitalization in steel manufacturing | Medium |
| Expanding applications in renewable energy and industrial sectors | Medium |
Impact Assessment of Key Restraints
| Restraint | Impact |
|---|---|
| Volatile material input prices | High |
| Stringent environmental regulations | High |
| Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks | High |
| Competition from alternative materials like aluminum and composites | Medium |
| Volatility in global trade policies | Medium |
| High initial investment costs for new technologies | Medium |
| Labor shortages and workforce challenges | Medium |
Starting in 2025, the return of a 25% duty on steel imports is intended to increase domestic production but has raised manufacturing costs for industries that may need imported steel in their production process. The unexpected nature of this policy change has forced manufacturers to reevaluate their supply chains, which could lead to inflated prices for consumers and shifts in their sourcing strategies. That's especially true for users of carbon in the construction and automotive sectors, who are having to juggle higher pressures to manage costs while still having the best material possible.
And while the focus on "melted and poured" requirements within North America aims to disrupt tariff circumvention, it increases complexity for importers trying to comply. In general, the tension between protecting domestic steel producers and the uncertainty of potential cost implications across various industries is what the tariffs have come to identify. Sales of carbon steel products in the US are projected to be USD 62.4 billion in 2025 and sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% and reach a valuation of 100.7 billion in 2035.
The trade relationship between Canada and the United States will significantly impact the Canadian carbon steel market in 2025. USA tariffs on steel imports have long hurt Canadian producers by shrinking likely export volumes and by hurting profitability. The Canadian manufacturers are reacting to this situation as they look for new markets and initiatives to boost domestic demand to compensate for decreasing exports to the United States.
Canada is also using diplomatic channels to negotiate exemptions or special trade arrangements. However, Canada are likely to be compensated by continued demand for carbon steel from infrastructure and construction projects domestically. To increase its competitiveness in both domestic and international industries, the industry is also promoting sustainable directions and putting innovations into practice. In 2025, sales of carbon steel products in Canada is 11.8 billion and sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% and reach a valuation of 19.0 billion in 2035.
The United Kingdom's carbon steel market is undergoing significant changes in 2025, driven by shifting trade policies and evolving domestic demand. With the US now applying tariffs on steel imports, the UK must now find new destinations for its exports and more effective trading relationships with other countries in the Commonwealth and with other non-EU member states.
The UK government continues to spend on infrastructure projects, promoting demand for carbon steel products domestically. But the industry faces high energy costs and strict environmental rules, leading to a move to greener production methods.
Industry stakeholders have joined hands with the government, having a shared vision of improving competitiveness in the long run through innovation and sustainability initiatives. By focusing on high-quality, specialized steel products, they aim to serve specific industry sectors and reduce exposure to global trade fluctuations and reduce exposure to global trade fluctuations.
The European Union and global context will witness significant advancements in the decarbonization of the carbon steel market in France by 2025. The European Commission reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining a competitive steel sector while protecting it from unfair trade practices, referencing the potential impact of proposed USA tariffs. If steel production can be decarbonized across the EU, France is already investing in green technology to achieve it.
Demand for carbon steel is supported by government-led infrastructure projects catering to economic revitalization in the domestic region. French steel production faces an influx of low-cost imports, necessitating innovation and the production of high-quality goods to maintain market share. Joint measures between the government and industry stakeholders are key to ensuring the long-term future of France's carbon steel sector in this challenging context.
As of 2025, Germany's carbon steel industry stands at a crossroads, facing both internal challenges and external pressures. The auto industry, a linchpin of demand for steel in Germany, faces restructuring as high production costs and fierce global competition forced carmakers to close plants and consume less steel. At the same time, initiatives from the European Commission to support the steel sector provide a palette with which to address aspects such as overcapacity and energy costs.
Despite financial and operational hurdles, German steelmakers are investing heavily in green technologies to align with the EU's decarbonization targets. Strengthening and advancing the EU’s collective efforts in this area remains a key priority, with strong EU trade defense regulation to prevent other economies from gaining over the EU through unfair competition. It is thus necessary for industry leaders and policymakers to work together strategically to balance these and effectively work towards the future key dynamics.
The report provides in-depth insights into South Korea's carbon steel market, helping industry stakeholders better understand the competitive landscape and future outlook. The steel producer stated that the government's plan to extend protection measures against imports of low-ash metallurgical coke would support local procurement while also monitoring imports from China. This move aims to bolster domestic steel production and increase self-sufficiency. But steel producers worry about the quality and the price of local inputs-which could in turn affect production efficiency and competitiveness.
Due to global trade tensions, South Korean steel exports are subject to so-called protectionism in major trends. To weather these challenges, the industry is concentrating on innovation, improving quality, and breaking into new methods. New sustainable and eco-friendly production processes are also being developed to meet the requirements of global environmental standards and cater to eco-conscious consumers.
Measures aimed at decarbonizing industries that significantly contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions, including Japan's carbon steel sector, are crucial as the industry faces both domestic and international challenges in 2025. The automotive industry, one of the biggest consumers of steel, is sliding due to expensive production costs and strong worldwide competition, resulting in lower demand for steel.
On the other hand, potential USA tariffs on Japanese automotive imports pose a threat to the business, prompting industry leaders to request government intervention and explore alternative methods. The industry is investing in updated technologies to be competitive at home and in line with global sustainable practices. It is important for the government to collaborate with industry players to address these challenges while also adapting to evolving market trends and strengthening advocacy efforts. Developing a strategic plan to sustain carbon steel production amid growing competition will be essential.
The landscape of China's carbon steel market in 2025 is evolving through a strategic transformation, influenced by domestic economic readjustments and global trade dynamics. With domestic demand slowing, notably as a cooling property the weighs on consumption, Chinese steelmakers are leaning more towards exports to keep the mills running. This surge in exports has not been without controversy, as several nations have imposed anti-dumping tariffs and other trade restrictions on Chinese steel products.
The Indian carbon steel market is expected to experience significant growth in 2025 due to the increasing rapid infrastructure development, urbanization & industrial activities. Government initiatives like Make in India and the National Infrastructure Pipeline are driving steel demand across construction, transportation, and energy sectors. Rising application of high-strength steel for manufacturing in the automotive sector is another factor driving revenue growth.
The focus on manufacturing steel in India has decreased imports, and the government has worked to rapidly expand capacity and modernize steel plants. In recent and increasingly important developments, major producers have begun adopting green steel production methods to comply with global environmental standards. The future of the industry will center on electric arc furnaces and hydrogen-based steelmaking.
Mexico's carbon steel market is forecasted to cross USD 10.15 billion by 2025, expanding at the highest growth rate in North America. The country is enjoying rapid industrial development, higher infrastructure building, and increasing demand from the major sectors, such as automotive and construction, with a high CAGR of 6.5% until 2035. Being a strategic manufacturing hub with favorable trade agreements, Mexico's steel industry is expected to grow in the long term, strengthening its regional player status.
The supply of carbon steel in North America is consolidated, with Tier 1 firms controlling approximately 90% of the market. This concentration indicates that a small number of large companies dominate a large portion of the sector and enjoy a significant level of control over output, distribution, and pricing.
Such consolidation often leads to a competitive environment in which dominant companies are perpetually focused on strategies that improve operating efficiencies and innovations that allow their continued dominance over the trends in question, which often creates significant barriers to entry for prospective competitors.
In order to maintain market supremacy in 2024, major companies in the North American carbon steel sector began to focus even more on sustainability and technical innovation. By contracting a LEED v4-certified mill and converting to electric delivery trucks, Nucor Corporation reinforced its eco-friendly initiatives and demonstrated its commitment to reducing carbon footprints.
United States Steel Corporation's Big River Steel facility now also received ResponsibleSteel certification, confirming that it is meeting rigorous sustainability criteria. Yet, Cleveland-Cliffs struggled to sell low-carbon steel and was considering canceling a USD 500 million climate-focused investment due to market resistance to the higher cost of green steel.
New companies have been at the forefront of bringing innovative methods to lower the carbon footprint of steel production. Electra, a company based in Colorado, developed an electrochemical process to produce iron at only a tenth of the temperature, which aligns with the application of renewable energy used.
Electra teamed up with Nucor and commissioned their pilot plant in 2024 to integrate this technology with their existing operations. In pursuit of scalable, low-emission steel, Boston Metal developed its molten oxide electrolysis process from laboratory scale to demonstration at pilot scale.
It is segmented into Low Carbon Steel/Mild Steel (up to 0.3% Carbon), Medium Carbon Steel (0.3 to 0.6% Carbon), and High Carbon Steel (More than 0.6% Carbon)
It is segmented into Flat Product Types and Long Product Types
It is segmented into Building & Construction, Automotive, Railways, Shipbuilding & Marine, Aerospace, Oil & Gas and Energy, Heavy Machinery & Equipment, Consumer Appliances, and Cutting Tools & Agriculture Equipment
It is segmented into United States, Canada, and Mexico
It is mainly driven by infrastructure development and the growth of the automobile and energy sectors.
All the major players are also adopting low-carbon technologies, electric arc furnaces, and green energy sources.
Continuously and globally shifting raw material prices, imports, and regulatory pressures are affecting the stability of the industry's growth.
Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, USA Steel, and Gerdau dominate the industry.
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Carbon Steel Industry Analysis in North America
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