The global cereal flake market is estimated to be valued at USD 42,343 million in 2024. Global sales of cereal flakes are projected to soar at a CAGR of 4.7% during the assessment period, with total industry valuation reaching USD 67,343 million by 2034.
One of the primary growth factors influencing the cereal flake market is the variety of health benefits associated with the product. Cereal flakes are known for containing protein, carbohydrates, vitamin B, and many more nutrients. As the younger generations gear their diets towards maximizing health, the impact of health trends on the cereal flake market is felt keenly.
The inclination of consumers to incorporate whole grain food products into their diets is one of the significant market trends in cereal flakes. Whole grain food products are becoming more common as the preference shifts towards eating healthy and organic.
While the flakes have already made a considerable name for themselves in Western countries, even developing and underdeveloped nations are now adopting the cereal more. These emerging markets in cereal flake products provide investors with enhanced opportunities.
Global Cereal Flake Industry Assessment
| Attributes | Description |
|---|---|
| Historical Size, 2023 | USD 41,234 million |
| Estimated Size, 2024 | USD 42,343 million |
| Projected Size, 2034 | USD 67,343 million |
| Value-based CAGR (2024 to 2034) | 4.7% |
The organic revolution has taken hold of the food and beverage sector. With increasing disdain over the use of preservatives, enhancers, and artificial ingredients in food, the demand for organic food is being boosted. Thus, there is also a significant market demand for organic cereal flakes.
Suppliers are taking full advantage of the health benefits provided by the flakes. They are highlighting the product’s nutritional benefits and the marketing of cereal flake products is focusing increasingly on the functional aspect. This has contributed to the flakes becoming even more of a breakfast staple.
Advances in food production technology have benefited the industry. Through technological innovation, manufacturers are able to offer more variety in flavors, textures, tastes, and more to consumers. These innovations in flavors and ingredients for cereal flakes help the industry to remain fresh and provide new avenues for growth.
Advances in agricultural practices are helping the industry’s growth to amplify. New farming techniques are producing better yields, helping the industry players deliver healthier and tastier goods. Thus, the impact of global agricultural policies on the cereal flake market has a positive connotation for investors.
On the flip side, there are also challenges in sourcing raw materials for cereal flake production. Supply chain disturbances, increasing transport costs, decrease in farmable land, and other challenges impact production negatively.
Functional Flakes Enhance Breakfast by Going Beyond Taste and Prioritizing Nutrition
A notable trend in the cereal flake sector is the emergence of functional flakes. These flakes are not just about taste; they are designed to serve a specific purpose beyond basic nutrition. One subcategory gaining traction is probiotic-infused flakes.
Probiotics, known for their gut-health benefits, are being incorporated into the flakes to appeal to health-conscious consumers. These flakes offer a convenient way to incorporate probiotics into one's diet without the need for supplements or dairy products.
Another functional trend in the cereal flake market is the rise of fortified flakes. Beyond the usual fortification with vitamins and minerals, manufacturers are exploring innovative ways to enhance the nutritional profile of the product. This includes fortifying with ingredients like collagen for skin health, adaptogens for stress relief, or omega-3 fatty acids for brain health.
By offering functional benefits beyond mere sustenance, these flakes cater to consumers seeking holistic wellness solutions in their breakfast choices. Surging popularity of these flakes is anticipated to bolster sales growth through 2034.
Exotic Grain Flakes Satiate Consumer Desire for Exploring Novelty and Nutrition
While traditional cereal flakes are typically made from grains like wheat, corn, or rice, there's a growing demand for more exotic grain options. Ancient grains like quinoa, amaranth, teff, and millet are finding their way into the flakes, appealing to consumers looking for variety and novelty in their breakfast routine.
These grains bring unique flavors, textures, and nutritional profiles to the table, tapping into the trend of adventurous eating and culinary exploration.
There's a rising interest in gluten-free flakes made from alternative grains like sorghum, buckwheat, or gluten-free oats. With the increasing prevalence of gluten sensitivities and celiac disease, the demand for gluten-free options continues to soar, prompting manufacturers to innovate and diversify their offerings in the landscape.
Artisanal and Customizable Flakes Bringing the Trend of Craftsmanship in Breakfast
In a departure from mass-produced cereals, artisanal and customizable flakes are carving out a niche in the sector. Artisanal cereal makers focus on small-batch production using high-quality ingredients, often sourced locally or ethically. These flakes boast unique flavor profiles and textures, appealing to discerning consumers willing to pay a premium for artisan craftsmanship and superior taste.
Customizable cereal flakes are gaining popularity, allowing consumers to tailor their breakfast to their specific preferences and dietary needs. Online platforms and specialty stores offer options to mix and match various grains, nuts, seeds, dried fruits, and flavorings, empowering consumers to create personalized cereal blends. This trend aligns with the growing demand for customizable food experiences and reflects consumers' desire for greater control and individualization in their diets.
The below table presents the expected CAGR for the global cereal flake sector over several semi-annual periods spanning from 2024 to 2034. For the first half (H1) from 2023 to 2033, the sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6%. For the second half (H2), growth is predicted at a CAGR of 4.8%.
| Particular | Value CAGR |
|---|---|
| H1 | 4.6% (2023 to 2033) |
| H2 | 4.8% (2023 to 2033) |
| H1 | 5% (2024 to 2034) |
| H2 | 4.9% (2024 to 2034) |
Moving forward to the subsequent period, from H1 2024 to H2 2034, the CAGR is foreseen to be 5% in the first half and 4.9% in the second half. Thus, it is clear that progress in the first half will happen slightly quicker than in the second half.
The cereal flake industry size was tipped to be USD 35,748 million in 2019. Throughout the historical period, the sector grew at a CAGR of 4.8%, reaching a size of USD 41,234 million in 2023.
Manufacturers already faced uncertainty in regard to raw material procurement. This problem was compounded in the historical period with the advent of the pandemic. Many manufacturing units also faced closure. With the lifting of measures, however, the sector’s path to progress became clearer again.
The industry is in line to shake off the cobwebs of the historical period and progress at a faster pace in the forecast period. With health trends no longer relegated to the niche crowd, the flakes are being embraced by all generations. Innovations in flavors and textures are also contributing to the sector’s uptake.
Consumers in Asian nations becoming more Westernized is benefitting the demand for cereal flakes. A rising number of consumers in these nations are now embracing Western-style breakfasts, including the flakes.
Manufacturers undertaking efforts to make the product healthier and organic are enhancing its reputation. The healthy and organic nature of the product is also being highlighted, through the packaging and advertising. Thus, the product is becoming more prominent in existing consumers’ minds and also bringing in new consumers.
Tier 1 companies that have a notable presence in the landscape include Kellogg Co. Ltd., CLEXTRAL, Cereal Planet, and Belourthe S.A. With advances in manufacturing, these companies, with their strong resources, are better poised to take advantage of them. Tier 1 companies are in line to account for 47.3% of the revenue generated in the sector.
For various consumers, cereal flakes have become synonymous with Kellogg's. Thus, the company’s well-built reputation helps its adoption by consumers. CLEXTRAL, meanwhile, has earned plaudits for its extrusion technology in the production of cereal flakes.
Cereal Planet focuses on diversity and health as a way to appeal to the young crowd. They offer flakes as varied as chocolate and berry-flavored flakes. The company’s commitment to health is also showcased by its production of low sugar and fortified flakes. Belourthe S.A. also relies on the diversity of its products while also undertaking sustainable practices in production.
Tier 2 companies include Cereal Food Manufacturing Company and Nature’s Path Foods. These tier 2 companies struggle to compete with the resources of tier 1 companies. Their revenue share is also less than both tier 1 and tier 3 companies, amounting to 10.8%. However, some tier 2 companies are still thriving in the industry.
To increase revenue, Cereal Food Manufacturing Company focuses on the healthy aspects of the product in advertising. On the other hand, Nature’s Path Foods focuses on the organic aspect of their product.
Tier 3 companies prominent in the sector include Arrowhead Mills and Erewhon Organic. These tier companies operate on a smaller scale, focusing on regional growth. Still, these companies account for 41.9% of the revenue generation of the industry.
Arrowhead Mills specializes in non-GMO and whole-grain products. Erewhon Organic also focuses on the organic nature of their flakes, while promising minimal processing in the making.
Western countries are the traditional hunting grounds for the product. As a result, the industry has a substantial presence in both Europe and North America. This presence is set to be catapulted by the fast launching organic flakes.
Other regions are also witnessing the sector’s rise. The Asia Pacific, specifically, is a lucrative region for investors as more people are now willing to try and adopt non-local breakfasts.
| Countries | CAGR (2024 to 2034) |
|---|---|
| China | 4.6% |
| United States | 4.6% |
| United Kingdom | 4.8% |
| Japan | 4.9% |
| India | 4.9% |
| Canada | 4.8% |
| Germany | 4.9% |
| France | 5.2% |
| Spain | 5.4% |
| Italy | 5.6% |
| Indonesia | 5% |
| Australia | 4.9% |
The market is penned in to progress at a CAGR of 4.6% in the United States. The United States is the birthplace of cereal. Naturally, then, the cereal flake sector has several bright prospects in the nation. While there is fear of saturation, companies can still undertake schemes to improve demand.
Cereal has been a staple of American breakfasts since the last century. Parents have also put their trust in cereal to feed kids for a prolonged amount of time. This has led to a brand like Kellogg earning massive growth in the country. However, it is advised for companies not to sit on their laurels.
With the fast-changing dynamics in the United States, it is imperative for companies to be on their toes. To appeal to children more, manufacturers are introducing various fruity flavors and attractive packaging. Experimentation is also being done with the sources of the flakes to appeal to a hipper, more young crowd.
Demand for cereal flakes in Italy is projected to surge at a CAGR of 5.6% over the forecast period, making it a highly lucrative pocket. There has been a gradual shift in the eating habits of the Italian population. For breakfast, Italians have been known to consume bread, coffee, butter, and other delicacies. However, a great focus on fitness is also being encouraged in Italy.
Social media influencers and ad campaigns have played a prominent part in the inclination towards healthy eating habits in Italians. More of the younger generation in Italy is turning towards healthy breakfasts like cereal flakes to emulate American eating habits.
The industry’s progress in the United Kingdom is put forth to happen at a CAGR of 4.8% over the forecast period. Consumers in the nation prefer flakes that prioritize health. Thus, low-sugar, low-sodium, gluten-free, and other healthy versions of the product are receiving greater appreciation from consumers in the country.
Manufacturers are also heeding the call of consumers for healthy products. Thus, Kellogg has undertaken to keep reducing the sugar and sodium levels in their cereal flake products in the United Kingdom.
The below section offers insights into leading segment of the cereal flake market. Organic is rising towards the top as the foremost product type. Wheat is the raw material prominently used in the making of the product.
| Segment | Organic (Product Type) |
|---|---|
| Value Share (2024) | 34.2% |
Organic flakes are expected to account for a value share of 34.2% in 2024. For years, the conventional form of the flakes dominated the sector. However, with the rise of organic trends, backed by greater health consciousness among users, organic versions of the product are starting to earn the vote of confidence.
While conventional flakes continue to account for the bigger share among the two, the rate of growth of organic flakes is predicted to be faster. This is expected to lead to the organic segment eventually gaining significant shares.
Consumers are also looking at the labels of products more keenly now. When visiting retail stores and groceries, an increasing number of consumers are on the hunt for food items with non-GMO, organic, and gluten-free tags. Thus, suppliers are emphasizing the organic nature of the flakes on the packaging.
| Segment | Wheat (Raw Material) |
|---|---|
| Value Share (2024) | 27.5% |
Wheat is anticipated to account for 27.5% of the industry share in 2024. Using wheat is the classical method of preparation. Consumers have grown accustomed to wheat, making wheat flakes a staple of breakfasts worldwide.
Health trends, however, are seeing a considerable number of people refuse wheat, affecting flakes made from the product too. Wheat contains gluten and with gluten-free trends on the rise, healthier alternatives are sought. Ingredients like oats are thus becoming more popular. Thus, the oats segment has a bright future in the industry going forward.
The global industry is dominated by giants, with Kellogg enjoying sway over the sector. Other giants like Nestle too, control a sizable portion of the industry. The dominance of these giants threatens to almost dwarf the competition. However, small-scale manufacturers have emerged in the landscape and carving out a niche for themselves.
Key players are constantly launching new products with improved functionalities to meet growing consumer demand. Similarly, strategies like partnerships, distribution agreements, and acquisitions are becoming popular among companies.
Key Industrial Developments
Based on nature, the cereal flake market is divided into traditional and ready-to-eat.
Based on the distribution channel, the industry is categorized into hypermarkets and supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores, non-grocery stores, e-commerce platforms, and others.
Based on the product type, the cereal flake market is segmented into organic and conventional.
Cereal flakes are mostly made from wheat, barley, rice, maize, oats, popcorn, and rye.
The sector has been analyzed with the following regions covered: North America, Latin America, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East and Africa.
The size of the cereal flake sector is estimated to be USD 42,343 million in 2024.
The industry is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.7% over the forecast period.
The cereal flake market is forecasted to reach a size of USD 67,343 million by 2034.
Kellogg, Maselis, and the Multiflakes Company.
Sales in the nation are set to surge at 4.6% CAGR through 2034.
India is poised to register a CAGR of 4.9% through 2034.
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Cereal Flake Market
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